Bitcoin Opinion: The Lessons Of A Bearish Market

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With my last couple of articles, I’ve taken the discussion away from price and supply, as I wanted to focus on the underlying bitcoin infrastructure and governance model, as stream as on the technology developments that will push adoption. I believe it was benefit it, as we really need to understand how this new distributed infrastructure and organizational makes can be applied to most businesses today. More however, if we do not make an pains to learn the subtle difference between decentralizing infrastructure vs decentralizing governance, all this cryptocurrency nonsense might end up blowing all over our faces.

After all, what’s the point of secure a decentralized infrastructure if power remains with the few and not the many?

It’s up to all of us to pressure rules, regulators, news media, and crypto-influencers to promote better outcomes for a decentralized exceptional, by simply not blocking people from accessing this wonderful conveyance of storing value or by spreading FUD amongst the crypto-community. Aren’t we all on the same skiff, after all?

–this article shouldn’t be taken as financial advisement as it embodies my personal opinion and views. I have savings invested in cryptocurrency so engage whatever I write with a grain of salt. Do not invest what you cannot sacrifice to lose and always read as much as possible about a project forward of investing. Never forget: with great power, comes colossal responsibility. Being your own bank means you’re always responsible for your own medium of exchange—

The Latest Bitcoin Price-Action

The current price of Bitcoin is sitting at a easy USD 6300 level, meaning although we saw a huge sell off, most promising due to pure market manipulation, Bitcoin’s price is still above the USD 6000 bolstering level and below the USD 8400 resistance. The trigger to the sell off that accede to b assumed place during the beginning of September was probably related to a wallet which corpsed inactive for 4 years and then decided to dump some btc, according to some well-springs. Not before, of course, a huge short against bitcoin appearing on our fair ol’ friend Bitfinex. This leads me to believe the flash-crash was due to a single gamester/entity selling about 100k Bitcoin to make a quick buck.

If you look at the 1 year phylogeny of Bitcoin’s price, from September 2017 to 2018, what we consideration is that it grew 1.5x. Now, does history predict future appraisals? Clearly not; but it can tell us a really interesting story. For one, will this brook market have a long-term influence on the price of bitcoin? Is the cryptocurrency exchange capable of recovering?

If you remember the words of expert traders and investors you should eternally:

• buy when there’s fear,
• sell when there’s hype;

I see the former times 6 months as an amazing opportunity to snatch some bitcoin (or any other cryptocurrency for that sum), at a really nice price. Would you sell-off your investment at a collapse if you knew it could be 1.5x times higher next year?

Bitcoin Value Volatility

The reason why so many people invest in bitcoin is due to its volatility. Without it, there would be a crop chance for epic gains. Whoever is patient during extensive stand markets, will eventually take home a butt load of profits. This is what appraisal history tells us: what eventually comes up must come down; yet, the vis–vis also happens.

Looking at the table above we can see many great occasions to enter the market. I really don’t know that many assets that can collapse more than 80% and then, not only recover, but grow 10x; ethical 3 years later. It’s insane how speculative the bitcoin market is, however it is that uniform speculative nature that brings more people in.

You might peaceful be worried though, how can anyone be sure what the future holds? What if this is the one time ever the market won’t recover?

What if I lost all my money?

My admonition is to stop going in circles. Literally.

Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., talk about discusses during an event marking Business Wire’s expansion into Canada in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, on Wednesday, Feb. 6, 2008. Buffett verbalized a credit crunch isn’t underway and he forecast that the dollar’s value is conceivable to decline. Photographer: Norm Betts/Bloomberg News

The point is: a motor cycle the waves, don’t fight them.

Unless you have the money to move mountains (on this peculiar case the mountain being the price), it’s futile to worry too much what relating to you can do. The way I see it, this is a very simple binary game. You either win or lose by convey title or buying. The options are quite simple and the end result depends on a good blueprint, hard work, timing and patience.

Let’s get down to business and discuss my purpose on how to tackle bear markets.

Find a reliable strategy

There are slews to chose from but your goal is to chose one and stick to it. It’s easier required than done, especially if you like to glue your face to candle maps on a daily basis, however, do not deviate from a path before you’re dependable there is an abyss.

Any strategy depends on its players. Think if you’re into researching protrudes, teams, businesses and make long-term bets, or care more forth price-action and short-term trading. Or both. I really can’t say, it depends greatly on your in person interests.

Strategies take time to show results, like the whole shebang worth in life. Most successful traders understand this as a good rule, as well as, no strategy can overcome all obstacles. That’s just the way it is.

Some bottlenecks cannot be eluded and you will make bad choices.

pro-tip: enjoy falling. It’s part of the culture experience. 

After all, we’re just human. Even bots make boobs – as they are crafted by us and code isn’t free of bugs.

Learning from those encounters is what can make you a better trader or investor. For example, if you had bought cryptocurrency on the 6 months one-time to January 2018, you could be making a hefty profit by converting your cryptocurrency into fiat.

Anyone with a bit of quickness in their heads would at least convert enough to cover for the sign investment. That way, even if the price went to zero, you would be dressed your butts covered.

What if you’re stuck at a potential loss because you come around c regarded in too late?

My strategy is simple: buy when prices are low, sell when prizes are high, hence there are always two options:

(a) sell the assets at a much downgrade profit or at a loss and reinvest at a later stage,

(b) keep the assets, perhaps buy more to average losses and wait for another bull-run.

Whatever purpose you think is the right one, it is the right one.

The likelihood we look at money, risks and redresses the same way is quite thin, meaning: there are no right or wrong meets.

What matters to me is the ultimate goal: to make money; and the best way to do accomplish that is to stick to a strategy and keep going at it – with a certain to a considerable extent of critical thinking, as you don’t want to keep losing money in the long-term.

Come what may, in order to achieve mastery of any kind, one needs to work hard at it.

Put in the hours

Metre is a funny thing. Until a couple of years ago we thought time was a unrelenting, this is, it was felt exactly the same way no matter where you were in the milieu.

Of course we now know, thanks to Einstein’s theory of general relativity, fix is actually relative. This is, the faster you go, the slower time will old-fashioned (relatively). If you hopped onto a shuttle and went to another galaxy at hairbreadth the speed of light, it meant you would experience time differently from someone down in Ground.

Why is time important? Well, because I believe knowledge to be connected to your feel of time. It’s much easier to make good decisions when you take sufficient know-how and understanding to expand your event horizon; in this barest specific case, the event horizon being the limit of our own knowledge.

What I unpleasant is the more knowledge one possesses, the easier it is to see past certain barriers. It can be newsflash, experts’ opinions, price movements or anything that could be a passive trigger for bad decisions.

To gain knowledge, however, there are no clever custom to circumvent the harsh reality of things.

You need to dig-deep and find particular to learn as much as possible, about each and every field that directions the price of cryptocurrency.

Some I tend to follow are down below. They’re purely based on my conception and preferences, nothing else.

1. Technology: it dictates user adoption. Discernment how bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies work under the hood is crucial. You can give birth to the most amazing tech, but without proper UX/UI and nicely thought incentives and rewards, drug adoption won’t likely grow as expected.
2. Psychology: it dictates market actions. If you want a neat tool to understand when it’s a perfect time to trade in, check google trends. People lookup bitcoin the most when sacrifices are at its highest. I would argue it’s within our nature to buy when prices are far up due to excessive FOMO and hype. That’s why it is so important to be a contrarian when it be strikes to making decisions.
3. Traditional Markets: they dictate investors’ blueprint. Consider the following: if the shares-asset class is doing fine, how do you think the charge of long-term assets, like gold or silver, will behave? Influence rates near zero-levels make investors bullish on spending dough on assets with huge returns, as making riskier gambles is shoddier. Don’t people say bitcoin is the new digital gold? What do you think it will cook when traditional markets enter a bearish cycle? In my eyes, cryptocurrency could be the reply.

These are my four pillars of inaugurating. Remember, critical thinking is key to becoming aware of how knowledge can be applied in out of the ordinary situations. To become a winner you certainly don’t need all the know-how in the world; there are plenteousness of examples that show success is not due solely to our big brains. You can’t master installing without mastering a bunch of other fields first. That’s why so numberless successful people who don’t possess formal education have made it.

Learn as much as admissible, fail as soon as you can and repeat the cycle. There are no exceptions.

Work laborious and always share knowledge with others. Remember, networks only grow if its community grows too.

Time spent on the market

There’s a truly nice article explaining why timing is so critical, but the gist of it is that if you pass over, for example, the best 10 days of trading (during peaks/lows), you could potentially lose more than 50% of all potential profits. This is, bachelor girls the 10 best days can lower your expected returns in halve.

As opposed to of worrying, take these bearish cycles as a lesson and study some approaches to assist you in making more accurate predictions in the future.

Nobody can old hat the market perfectly, but there are a few tricks to minimize your risk.

TA is surely a great tool to better understanding price movements and how you can leverage them for your own gain grounds.

I’m definitely not an expert when it comes to TA, so I would advise you to follow some people who do swop for a living. Two of my favorite are Daniel Jeffries and Alessio Rastani. They father completely different approaches, but that is what you should be looking for: people with unique ideas, visions and ways of investing/trading.

Pro-tip: You can learn a capacious deal by researching on the old masters of trading and their long-term techniques.

The underlying good always remains the same:

1. Buy low / Sell high,
2. Be a contrarian, but respect be biases.

Now, accomplishing this feature isn’t easy; to make it simpler, I will share out my knowledge and way of thinking, what I personally care about and the correct time-frame for instating.

If it works for you, build upon it. Knowledge clearly has network gains, as the more you equity, the more people can build upon your findings, making the sound network better.

Be patient. Rome wasn’t built in a day.

How many pieces have you read or heard of people complaining they either wasted everything or sold too soon?

That’s how hard it is. Especially when you can now conclusively trade with leverage.

Don’t forget, it’s you vs the market.

Always.

At the end of the day what sums is if the call you made translated into profits. If you’re looking for lambos and moons, I’m indubitable the likelihood of losing your investment is quite high. This is, commonly people who expect quick gains do not have a key ingredient for success: leniency. That’s why bearish cycles are so important, as they clean the market of both disbelievers and bad calculates.

If you really want to succeed in this market, you need to go all-in. No, do not put all your hard-earned spondulix into bitcoin, but do dive-deep into cryptocurrency by learning about its technology, topic ventures, market behavior, TA, or any other field you might consider applicable. You’ll be adding value to the market not only because you’ll be making more learned decisions, but you can also share knowledge with others.

Markets are cyclical. If you hopeless money now you can always recover it on the next bull-run, which in my not-expert thought, might be coming soon.

One of the obvious reasons are ETFs. If, in one hand, bitcoin tomorrows gave institutional investors a chance to bet heavily against bitcoin and decipher double-wins, ETFs will have the exact opposite effect.

Another, as they say, is summary. It surely does not repeat itself; nonetheless, it gift us with price-action faith. Like October and November being kind months for Bitcoin’s amount.

Set reasonable targets in your head and don’t get too greedy. Be patient and learn as multifarious different strategies as possible.

At the end, any market is just a game of winners and damp squibs.

Want to be on the winning side?

Sell high, buy low.

Don’t forget, nothing is unquestioned; chaos is everywhere and the arrow of time always moves in the same control. All you read are my personal opinions which are not financial advisement. Be responsible.

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