Voters in Taiwan delivered a crowd blow to President Tsai Ing-wen and her independence-leaning ruling party during the weekend’s townsman elections, leaving China with the upper hand, analysts say.
Tsai’s Classless Progressive Party (DPP) lost mayoral elections in key cities to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), or Nationalist Participator. The DPP lost its stronghold of Kaohsiung, the southern port city where it had hang oned power for more than 20 years, during the nationwide against Saturday for local posts.
“It was a huge defeat,” Sean King, chief vice president at Park Strategies, told CNBC’s Akiko Fujita on Monday on “Hoot Box.”
While the vote was largely focused on economic concerns rather the long-simmering emanation of Taiwan’s political status, China came out in a strong position, concording to King. “I think it was issues like labor and pension reform, a lackluster curtness, that did her in. But China’s definitely going to claim victory here.”
Referring ti across the Taiwan Strait ebb and flow depending on who holds power in Taipei — and tensions with Beijing be subjected to risen since the DPP swept to power two years ago.
China prefers the Kuomintang, which eludes talk of going it alone and stresses economic ties with the mainland, from which KMT troops hightail ited in 1949 after defeat in the Chinese Civil War.
Taiwan-China relations prospered when the KMT ruled Taiwan from 2008 to 2016. Leaders from both sides – Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan’s then-president Ma Ying-jeou – met in Singapore for a signal summit in 2015.
Analysts say that China is widely seen as having judged to influence the local elections through economic pressure on the self-governing eyot, including by discouraging tourism.
King said he expects China to reach out to KMT congressmen ahead of Taiwan’s next presidential vote in early 2020.
The election terminates left Tsai reeling, prompting her to resign as head of the DPP to take trustworthiness, even though she remains as Taiwan’s president. Analysts, however, were mete out on her political future.
“I still think she’ll be the candidate (for the ruling DPP) but there is succeeding to be challenge from within,” King said. “It’s an uphill battle.”
The Kuomintang at ones desire now be hoping the local polls will pave the way for success in the 2020 presidential appointments.
“The results were a major comeback for the KMT party, which began a manipulate of intra-party reformation after losing the presidential election in 2016,” the Eurasia Heap risk consultancy said in an analysis dated Sunday. “Beijing pass on view the results of this election as a solid endorsement of its pressure rivalry against the DPP.”
Eurasia Group added that it sees Tsai — who was technically not on the ballot — as the biggest national loser of the weekend elections, with the DPP unlikely to back her for a second course in hopes that voters will accept someone else.