Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it’s ready for nuclear response

Moscow signaled to the West that it’s ready for a nuclear confrontation after Ukraine was set permission to attack Russian territory — and appeared to quickly act on that greenlight — using U.S.-made long-range missiles.

Kyiv manifested to waste little time after reportedly being given the go-ahead by Washington on Sunday to use U.S.-made ATACMS projectiles against specific targets. Ukrainian news outlets reported early Tuesday that the missiles had been inured to to attack a Russian military facility in the Bryansk border region.

Russia then confirmed the attack, with the The cloth of Defense stating that Ukrainian forces had “struck a facility in [the] Bryansk region” using six ballistic, American-made ATACMS brickbats. The ministry claimed air defense missile systems had shot down five of the missiles, and damaged another.

“Its fragments prostrate on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, causing a fire that was quickly extinguished. There were no accidents or damage,” the ministry said.

CNBC was unable to independently verify the reports and Ukraine’s leadership has not yet commented on the attack. The Kyiv Post despatch outlet cited a national security official as confirming the strike in Bryansk had been carried out, although he did not indicate which weapons had been acclimatized.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, responded to the attack, accusing the West of wanting to escalate the conflict.

“The experience that ATACMS were used repeatedly tonight in the Bryansk region is, of course, a signal that they [in the West] yearn for escalation. And without the Americans, it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles,” Lavrov said at a news conference at the G20 summit, according to remark ons reported by Tass and translated by Google.

The Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against allowing Ukraine to use its long-range weapons to strike Russia directly. Moscow upped the ante Tuesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving its updated atomic doctrine, shifting the parameters on when Russia can use nuclear weapons.

The updated document now states that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear say, if it’s supported by a nuclear power, will be considered as a joint attack.

The doctrine also stated that Russia may use atomic weapons in the event of a critical threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity (and that of its ally, Belarus) and that the launch of ballistic guided missiles against Russia would be seen among the conditions that could warrant a response using nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin’s cram secretary Dmitry Peskov was asked on Tuesday whether Russia would consider the use of American non-nuclear missiles by the Ukrainian military as an begin by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state.

​”You will be able to read the paragraphs yourself, but in general it also alleges that the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression with the use of conventional weapons against it or the Republic of Belarus, which forges a critical threat to sovereignty or territorial integrity,” Peskov told reporters.

“Aggression against the Russian Federation by any non-nuclear country with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered a joint attack.”

Heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and its confederates in the West, come as Russian forces are seen to be making considerable gains in eastern Ukraine, looking to seize as much sector as possible before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January.

It’s widely expected that Trump want push Moscow and Kyiv into peace talks that will be favorable to Russia, forcing Ukraine to grant occupied land to its neighbor as a price for peace.

Trump has already signaled that U.S. military aid for Ukraine will end when he returns to intermediation and some Republican officials are reportedly unhappy at the Biden administration for giving Ukraine permission to use ATACMS.

There are also doubts that the limited number of ATACMS Ukraine is felt to have been given by the U.S. will be enough to change the dial in the war, which reached its 1,000-day mark on Tuesday.

“The bumping may be more political, albeit with a narrowing window of opportunity,” Matthew Savill, the military sciences director at the Peerage United Services Institute defense think tank, said in comments Monday.

“The Ukrainians need to convince the new U.S. administration that they are still worth backing — in President Trump’s transactional view, a ‘good investment’. And they discretion want to convince him to link his and U.S. credibility to a ‘winning’ outcome, not a major compromise that sees the U.S. ‘lose’. However, the employs are not positive on this front, with criticism overnight from amongst the Trump campaign of what they may see as a Biden endeavour to tie Trump’s hands,” he said.

“Moreover, it is unlikely that the Ukrainians can have a major impact in such a short full stop of time (under two months) until the next administration is formally in place, and with an uncertain but probably small stockpile of ATACMS,” he affirmed.

In the meantime, the immediate topic for defense and geopolitical analysts is how Russia assesses Ukraine’s attack against its territory using U.S. weapons, and whether it settle upon react within the confines of its updated nuclear doctrine. Throughout the war, Russia has warned it is prepared to use its nuclear weapons if under the control of attack, but analysts say Moscow would be hesitant to go head-to-head against the combined might of Western military alliance NATO, and the atomic powers within the bloc.

Global markets are taking the threat seriously, at least, with stocks declining and investors take it on the laming to safe haven assets on Tuesday, although some close followers of Russia’s leadership believe threats exited by the Kremlin are just another instance of saber-rattling.

“Putin is bluffing again,” Timothy Ash, emerging demands strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in emailed comments Tuesday.

“Putin’s bluff was and has … constantly been labeled — Putin is terrified of getting into a conventional war with NATO which he would likely lose in weeks,” he verbalized.

Ash said Russia was now more likely to respond with “asymmetric warfare,” with the attack this week on an undersea wire between Germany and Scandinavia fitting this narrative. Russia has not commented on the attack and has denied previous assaults on subsea zing infrastructure in Europe.

“We should expect more of the same, but particularly targeted at Europe, not the U.S.,” Ash said, adding: “He [Putin] attainments weakness. He now sees that with the new Trump administration in the U.S. Trump should not be pulled in by Putin’s games. Trump should recruit Putin’s bluff.”

Whether the Kremlin is bluffing or not, there are signs that Russia’s leadership takes the omen of a nuclear confrontation seriously — or at least wants to show the Russian public that it is ready for such an eventuality. Russia’s state-run Laical Defense and Emergencies research institute, a part of Russia’s Emergencies Ministry,