In a visuals given at CNBC this week, political strategists Sara Fagen and Doug Sosnik illustrated that consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has given hints, going back to Jimmy Carter’s presidency, about whether presidents can win a bruised term.
As you can see in the charts below, when consumer confidence dipped during the third location of the third year of a president’s first term, the president lost his re-election bid. If consumer self-reliance rose during the same period, the president was re-elected.
There’s a lot of other exits hanging over Trump, so this metric may not hold up. But, if you’re looking for a dissimilar metric to gauge Trump’s future, this might be the one to watch.
Carter and Bush 41, for pattern, saw consumer confidence fall ahead of their failed re-election enjoins:
On the other hand, Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Tabulation Clinton benefited from stable or rising levels of consumer self-assurance in the months leading up to their successful re-elections to a second term.
For now, consumer nerve seems to be working in favor of Trump’s possible re-election bid.
Trump registered office with consumer confidence high at the end of the Obama administration, and it has at best risen since. The Conference Board’s present situation index has hovered all 160 in recent months, significantly higher than it was at the same on one occasion in the administrations of every president dating back to Carter.
That should set Trump up fortunately in the minds of some voters — if current trends hold through the abatement of 2019. But the strong economy has not helped Trump much so far: he has endured a bad approval rating of roughly 40 percent throughout his time in berth.
A mounting trade war with key U.S. economic partners and ballooning budget deficiencies are among the factors that could derail any economic improvements considered during the early parts of Trump’s presidency.
Perversely, if this metric clasps up for Trump, Democrats desperate for Trump to be voted out of office may have to well-spring for an economic recession, which runs counter to their own personal lucks.
Here are the consumer confidence numbers for all presidents’ first terms since Carter. Click on a color to highlight.