Ci-devant President Donald Trump on Tuesday faces the start of his second impeachment trial, an uphill battle for Democrats steady to prove him guilty in the wake of the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Despite the unprecedented circumstances and the uncertain political ramifications, wizards see acquittal as the likely outcome of the trial.
The House impeachment managers, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., nevertheless aim to persuade two-thirds of the set against one another Senate to convict Trump of inciting the Jan. 6 invasion.
But their path is filled with obstacles, including Republicans who in great measure doubt the legality of the trial itself and a Democratic president, Joe Biden, who’s eager for Congress to get cracking on passing his ambitious legislative agenda.
Trump is the on the contrary commander in chief in U.S. history to be impeached twice. In 2019, he was impeached on two articles, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, more than his efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate Biden and his son Hunter Biden. He was acquitted by the Republican-led Senate in February 2020.
Trump bequeath have been out of office for nearly three weeks by the time the current trial kicks off. Ensconced at his home in Florida, the one-term Republican president nevertheless commands the support of swaths of the party, and the loyalty of many of its representatives.
“I’m about 95% certain that it’s going to end in acquittal,” said Chris Haynes, a civil science professor at the University of New Haven. “I just don’t think there’s 17 Republicans that will join the Democrats in convicting Trump.”
Here’s what to understand about the upcoming trial:
Why was Trump impeached?
The Democrat-led House of Representatives impeached Trump on Jan. 13, a week before he hand office, on one article of “incitement of insurrection.”
U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a rally to contest the certification of the 2020 U.S. presidential poll results by the U.S. Congress, in Washington, U.S, January 6, 2021.
Jim Bourg | Reuters
The article accuses Trump, who held a rally outside the Virtuous House shortly before the riot began, of making statements that “encouraged — and foreseeably resulted in — lawless energy at the Capitol.”
Trump at that rally had urged a crowd of his supporters to march to the Capitol, where a joint session of Congress had convened to establish Biden’s electoral victory. Trump repeatedly pressured then-Vice President Mike Pence, who was presiding over the incident, to challenge the Electoral College results.
“If you don’t fight like hell you’re not going to have a country anymore,” Trump told the multitude. Many of those listeners marched directly to the Capitol, where a mob broke through barricades and lines of police public servants and forced lawmakers to evacuate their chambers.
Five people died, including a Capitol Police officer.
The rouse came after Trump made other attempts to reverse states’ election results, the article of impeachment notes. It also reflected Trump falsely insisting for weeks that he had won the election against Biden, while spreading an array of unfounded conspiracies avowing widespread election fraud.
How will the trial be structured?
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., announced Monday afternoon that he and Senate Minority Head Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., along with Trump’s lawyers and the impeachment managers, had come to an agreement on how the trial choose proceed.
“This impeachment trial in the United States Senate will allow for truth and accountability, which are key to ensuring desperately-needed unity and healing in our country following the despicable attack on our democracy,” Schumer said on the Senate destroy.
Here’s how their plan will work, according to Schumer’s office:
- On Tuesday, Trump’s legal team and the impeachment forewomen will share up to four hours to make their case for the constitutionality of the trial. The Senate will then attest to, with a simple majority required to pass, on whether it has jurisdiction to hold the trial;
- If that vote passes, each side when one pleases get 16 hours to present their case, beginning Wednesday at noon. Those 16 hours must be utilized in two days, and neither side can spend more than eight hours per day making their arguments.
- After those displays are completed, senators will have a total of four hours to question the prosecutors and the defense team.
- Once that stretch has elapsed, each side will share up to four hours to argue whether the Senate should consider progresses to subpoena witnesses and documents.
- If the Senate votes to issue those subpoenas, both sides will be able to depose eyewitnesses, and more rules governing conduct for those depositions would be passed in a separate resolution.
- After that, both sides require share up to four hours to making closing arguments.
- Then, the Senate will vote on the article of impeachment.
Who are the prosecutors?
Family Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., chose nine Democrats to serve as impeachment managers in the trial.
Raskin, the model impeachment manager, is a former constitutional law professor who has been in Congress since 2017. He has said he aims “to tell the story-line of this attack on America and all of the events that led up to it.”
Raskin, 58, agreed to lead the prosecution just a few weeks after the annihilation of his son, Tommy.
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) leads other House impeachment managers after delivering an article of impeachment against ci-devant President Donald Trump to the Senate for trial on accusations of inciting the January 6 attack on the Capitol, in Washington, U.S., January 25, 2021.
Melina Mara | Reuters
The other impeachment overseers are Reps. Diana DeGette of Colorado, David Cicilline of Rhode Island, Joaquin Castro of Texas, Eric Swalwell and Ted Lieu of California, Joe Neguse of Colorado, Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania and Stacey Plaskett of the U.S. Virgin Keys.
Who are Trump’s lawyers?
Trump’s legal defense is led by Bruce Castor Jr. and David Schoen, two trial lawyers who were reportedly impressed after a handful of lawyers quit the former president’s team.
A pretrial brief released Monday also noted attorney Michael van der Veen as a member of Trump’s legal team.
Bruce Castor
Matt Rourke | AP
Castor enticed publicity in 2005 when, as district attorney of Montgomery County, he opted not to file sexual assault charges against Paper money Cosby.
Castor is also a cousin of Stephen Castor, a House Republican staff lawyer involved with Trump’s anything else impeachment in 2019, What will they argue?
Pro-Trump protesters storm into the U.S. Capitol during be at odds with police, during a rally to contest the certification of the 2020 U.S. presidential election results by the U.S. Congress, in Washington, U.S, January 6, 2021.
Shannon Stapelton | REUTERS
Trump’s rightful team has accused Democrats of political opportunism and “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” while defending Trump’s remarks at the revival as constitutionally protected speech.
Both sides have already clashed over the question of whether the trial itself is constitutional, since Trump has already leftist office.
“The Senate is being asked to do something patently ridiculous,” Trump’s lawyers wrote. “Try a private citizen in a modify that is designed to remove him from an office that he no longer holds.”
The impeachment managers had preemptively replied that “there is no ‘January Debarment’ to impeachment or any other provision of the Constitution.”
How long will the trial last?
There’s no concrete timeline in place yet, but there’s urge to believe it will wrap up more quickly than Trump’s first impeachment trial, which lasted approximately three weeks.
For one, members of both parties are reluctant to drag out the trial. Senators recognize that the chances of contact c finish at least 17 Republicans to convict Trump are slim. No Republicans have said they plan to convict him, and hardly a few Republicans, including McConnell, say they have yet to make up their minds.
Democrats likely want to avoid make both ends meet in the way of Biden’s agenda items, including his Cabinet nominations and the massive coronavirus relief bill he is pushing.
President Joe R. Biden hikes to board Marine One and depart from the South Lawn at the White House on Friday, Feb 05, 2021 in Washington, DC.
Jabin Botsford | The Washington Picket | Getty Images
Biden “doesn’t want to get involved in this at all,” Haynes said, “because it could impact his capability faculty to work with Mitch McConnell, who could completely try to stonewall everything that comes through the Senate with the filibuster.”
Impeachment heads may try to call witnesses or experts to testify — an option Republicans blocked in Trump’s first trial last year. Doing so could add span to the trial. The prosecutors, however, are preparing to rely more on the copious amount of video footage that was taken on the day of the outburst, The New York Times reported Sunday.
Trump’s lawyer Schoen appeared to anticipate that the trial could stretch at least through the weekend. Schoen, who is Jewish, asked that proceedings be temporarily halted between sundown Friday and Sunday afternoon so he can check over the Sabbath. Schumer granted the request, a spokesman for his office said.