Home / NEWS / Politics / French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts

French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts

Transgression President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at the Erie Insurance Arena in Erie, Pennsylvania, on October 14, 2024. 

Dustin Franz | Afp | Getty Ikons

A stark shift toward former President Donald Trump on the political gambling platform Polymarket this month stoked study about four accounts that have collectively spent over $28 million betting on the Republican appointee to win the 2024 presidential election.

Polymarket on Thursday confirmed what a number of experts have suspected: All four accounts are suppressed by a single trader.

A company spokesperson in a statement to CNBC described the whale as a French national with “extensive return experience and a financial services background.”

The statement said the trader’s accounts were funded from a “well-known centralized crypto Stock Exchange,” which other outlets have identified as the U.S.-based exchange Kraken.

The company insisted that it has found no affidavit that the trader is trying to juice Trump’s odds on the political betting market.

An investigation involving third-party experts “to season has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market,” Polymarket said.

The New York Times, which tell of Polymarket’s statement earlier Thursday morning, said the company worked with the investigations firm Nardello & Business.

The scrutiny on the Polymarket trades comes as political betting markets have taken on a much more prominent character in the 2024 election cycle.

Trump’s supporters have touted Polymarket’s widening odds gap with Democratic office-seeker Vice President Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump’s support is growing — even though the shift deviates from most national polls, which show a neck-and-neck race, well within the margin of error.

Understand more CNBC politics coverage

Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO and one of the biggest financial backers of Trump’s Dead white House bid, asserted on X, the social media platform he owns, that the betting markets are “more accurate than registers, as actual money is on the line.”

Polymarket in Thursday’s statement emphasized that “prediction markets are not opinion polls—they estimation the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people who intend to take an action such as, in this turns out that, voting on Election Day.”

“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other hint market platforms,” the company said.

As of Thursday morning, the accounts’ total position on the presidential election bet was valued at in the matter of $28.6 million, according to Polymarket data.

The four accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — are centre of the top five holders on the pro-Trump side of Polymarket’s bet on who will win the race for the White House.

The trader’s accounts have also bet above $7 million that Trump will win the popular vote over Harris.

Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies reach-me-down by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.

The Polymarket spokesperson said it believes “that this party is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.”

But the person nevertheless “has agreed not to open further accounts without attention.”

Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders, following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

But another risk platform, Kalshi, posted new presidential election contracts after a favorable ruling in a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. Interactive Stockjobbers has also launched a slew of political betting contracts.

The CFTC is challenging Kalshi’s right to host those wagers.

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Home / NEWS / Politics / French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts

French trader bet over $28 million on Trump election win using 4 Polymarket accounts

Shortcoming President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign event at the Erie Insurance Arena in Erie, Pennsylvania, on October 14, 2024. 

Dustin Franz | Afp | Getty Fetishes

A stark shift toward former President Donald Trump on the political gambling platform Polymarket this month stoked exploration about four accounts that have collectively spent over $28 million betting on the Republican office-seeker to win the 2024 presidential election.

Polymarket on Thursday confirmed what a number of experts have suspected: All four accounts are commanded by a single trader.

A company spokesperson in a statement to CNBC described the whale as a French national with “extensive swop experience and a financial services background.”

The statement said the trader’s accounts were funded from a “well-known centralized crypto traffic,” which other outlets have identified as the U.S.-based exchange Kraken.

The company insisted that it has found no assertion that the trader is trying to juice Trump’s odds on the political betting market.

An investigation involving third-party wizards “to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market,” Polymarket pronounced.

The New York Times, which reported Polymarket’s statement earlier Thursday morning, said the company worked with the interrogations firm Nardello & Company.

The scrutiny on the Polymarket trades comes as political betting markets have taken on a much numerous prominent role in the 2024 election cycle.

Trump’s supporters have touted Polymarket’s widening odds gap with Popular nominee Vice President Kamala Harris as evidence that Trump’s support is growing — even though the muu-muu diverges from most national polls, which show a neck-and-neck race, well within the margin of incorrectly.

Read more CNBC politics coverage

Elon Musk, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO and one of the biggest financial backers of Trump’s Anaemic House bid, asserted on X, the social media platform he owns, that the betting markets are “more accurate than records, as actual money is on the line.”

Polymarket in Thursday’s statement emphasized that “prediction markets are not opinion polls—they into the bargain the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people who intend to take an action such as, in this casket, voting on Election Day.”

“Unfortunately, this fundamental misunderstanding is responsible for much of the misinformation about Polymarket and other prophecy market platforms,” the company said.

As of Thursday morning, the accounts’ total position on the presidential election bet was valued at almost $28.6 million, according to Polymarket data.

The four accounts — Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie — are volume the top five holders on the pro-Trump side of Polymarket’s bet on who will win the race for the White House.

The trader’s accounts have also bet beyond $7 million that Trump will win the popular vote over Harris.

Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies reach-me-down by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.

The Polymarket spokesperson said it believes “that this person is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election.”

But the person nevertheless “has agreed not to open further accounts without consciousness.”

Polymarket is currently banned for U.S. traders, following a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

But another gamble platform, Kalshi, posted new presidential election contracts after a favorable ruling in a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C. Interactive Middlemen has also launched a slew of political betting contracts.

The CFTC is challenging Kalshi’s right to host those stakes.

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Wealthy Americans are still ducking the IRS crackdown on non-filers

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