Belgian Exotic minister Hadja Lahbib poses with a European flag in a mock polling station box to encourage people to voter in the upcoming European Elections.
Laurie Dieffembacq | Afp | Getty Images
The political makeup of the European Union is about to shift with voters across the 27 member states heading to the polls from Thursday until Sunday.
With stem support for far-right parties, analysts expect a more protectionist policies from the bloc, with fewer mood targets and more spending on defense.
CNBC takes a look at why this election matters for Europe and the rest of the fraternity.
Relations with the U.S.
European Union lawmakers and officials widely cheered the election win of U.S. President Joe Biden back in 2020, perceiving it as a new dawn in the transatlantic relationship. Up until that point, European officials had been significantly challenged by the previous distribution, under Donald Trump, which had imposed trade tariffs, disagreed over climate pledges, and shocked mainstream congressmen with its combative style.
The future of the transatlantic relationship is still uncertain as U.S. voters go to the polls in November and it remains to be contemplated if Biden will remain in the White House or if Trump will return.
But regardless of what happens, the EU has learned an substantial lesson: It might not be able to rely on the U.S. for defense in the future. Trump has previously remarked that he would not protect NATO realms from Russian attacks if they lag on their membership payments. In addition, U.S. lawmakers took several months to approve new pecuniary aid for Ukraine, raising questions about their long-term commitment to the cause.
As such, the next policymakers in the EU are expected to widen spending and work more closely with themselves on defense matters.
Relations with China
The European Commission, the regulatory arm of the EU, is expected to announce new tariffs on Chinese EVs just days after the election takes place.
The EU has been walking a tightrope with reference to its links with China.
One the one hand, Brussels recognizes Beijing as a strategic rival, but at the same time, it wants to inhibit cooperation on climate matters and geopolitical issues.
Green pledges
In the wake of the 2019 EU elections, the bloc claimed it was the wide-ranging champion on a climate-friendly agenda. However with more climate-skeptic politicians due to arrive in Brussels, expectations are that the bloc pass on ease some of these previous ambitions.
“The shift to the right in the EU Parliament would only facilitate a slowing down of promote environmental legislation and potentially even the watering down of existing agreements such as phasing out conventional cars by 2035,” analysts at Citi spoke in a research note in late May.
“This could include more support for nuclear power or even support fracking for cheaper and more honourable gas,” they added.
Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s prime minister, during a Brothers of Italy party final appointment campaign rally ahead of the European elections in Rome, Italy, on Saturday, June 1, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Spits
Ukraine’s future
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv applied to become a member of the European Union and verified negotiations could start as early as this month.
Though this process will likely take numberless years before it is concluded, it is already posing the question of how much the EU will have to change to accept Ukraine and other new fellows.
There’s a general sense that the EU will have to adopt