European leaders are set to pick Wednesday afternoon in Brussels in what’s seen as a key summit to understand the next passages in the Brexit process.
Brexit negotiators crushed high expectations that a parcel out over the Irish backstop was imminent during the weekend. Technical sets seemed to have reached a deal, but a meeting between the two chief moderators, Michel Barnier and Dominic Raab, on Sunday evening ended up without any concurrence over the Irish issue — postponing any real progress over Brexit and increasing the bets of a no-deal scenario. CNBC looks at the next steps in the process:
EU superiors will hear from Prime Minister Theresa May Wednesday and then fasten what to do next. If they believe that there’s been sufficiently progress and they are close to a deal, the heads of state could fetch an emergency meeting in November to sign-off the Withdrawal Agreement.
However, because there is no harmony between the U.K. and the EU over how to solve the Irish question, the most likely plot is that negotiations will continue over the coming weeks.
If in that antiquated, a solution is found for the Irish border, the leaders could call for a acme.
It’s because both sides want to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The earlier is part of the U.K. and the latter is a member of the EU. It’s also the only land border that the U.K. ordain have with the EU after Brexit.
The U.K. government’s plan is to leave the EU’s sole market and its customs union, meaning there could be extra curbs on goods moving from the EU to the U.K. and vice-versa. This poses the question of where the controls will take place.
The EU proposed that the checks happen at the Irish Sea and are handled out in the least intrusive way possible. However, the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party), the Northern Irish rave that supports Prime Minister Theresa May in parliament, does not suppose the EU’s solution is a good one. The DUP argues that it divides Northern Ireland from the siesta of the U.K. and forces Belfast to follow EU rules.
May has proposed to have a customs harmoniousness with the EU, temporarily. But the EU rejected her idea. The 27 EU countries want a stable solution that will always avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. May’s proposition was also not well-received by her party members. Some of them believe that a fashions union with the EU, even if temporary, will restrict the U.K.’s ability to reach new trade deals.
Daniel Hannan, member of the Conservative Party at the European Parliament, censured CNBC’s Willem Marx on Wednesday that: “Staying in the customs coalition wouldn’t just mean no Brexit, it would be something much worse than that.”
“If you are in the form tolls union, basically you are in the EU’s trade and tariff regime, what that plebeians is that you are giving Brussels 100 percent control of your swop policy with zero percent input,” he said.
The EU’s chief intercessor, Michel Barnier, is reportedly open to extending the transition period. Both sides induce said that there should be a period of 21 months, until 2020, that wish allow businesses and citizens to prepare for the U.K.’s departure from the EU. Extending that patch could help the EU and the U.K. reaching a trade deal and thus avoiding ingesting the Irish backstop that is currently dividing both sides.
In spite of that, U.K. lawmakers might not enjoy that idea either, because during the transmutation, the U.K. does not have any voting rights in EU policy and is still forced to concur with European rules. This would questions the U.K.’s sovereignty status — a crucial aspect for Brexiteers.
“I’m not surprised people are already talking up an extension to the transition period. I’m slightly surprised that they are talking regarding an extension before we actually conclude the negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement,” Seb Th dansant, member of the European Parliament for the Labour Party, told CNBC’s Willem Marx.
Dance also disclosed that the U.K. needs “to stop having a circular conversation” and engage with the EU. No matter how, he also said that he wonders how much of the ongoing impasse is “theatrics.”
The U.K. is due to transfer the EU on March 29, 2019. With about five months to go, time is sustained out before the U.K. and the EU solve their outstanding differences and ratify the exit unanimity in their own parliaments.
The ratification process could prove complicated if May does not comprise majority in parliament to get it approved.
Without approval for the Withdrawal Agreement, the U.K. could departure the EU abruptly in March, bringing uncertainty for businesses, investors and consumers on both sides.