Ignoring the risk of disruption especially from OPEC-countries like Venezuela, Iran, Libya and Nigeria, Bank of America Merrill Lynch translated global supply could climb towards year-end.
“Heading into 4Q18, we require rising non-OPEC oil production as supply outages abate and greenfield lobs ramp up,” the U.S. bank said in a note to clients.
“Currently, non-OPEC delivery outages are at a 15-month high of 730,000 barrels per day. However, nearly half of these volumes are in the make of being restored,” it said.
Adding to that will be new production in Canada, Brazil and from the Collective States, which the bank said “should provide a substantial upwards to non-OPEC supplies” during the second-half of the year “taming upside crushings on Brent crude oil prices”.
Bank of America said it expected Brent prices to be in a $65 to $80 per barrel span “until Iran sanctions start to bite” in the first-half of 2019.
In the United States, rude oil inventories rose by 38,000 barrels to 405.7 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, effort group the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday.
Official U.S. nutriment inventory and crude production data will be published on Wednesday by the Vigour Information Administration (EIA).