After President Trump pulled out of the Iran atomic deal, experts wanted to know what comes next?
Today, Secretary of Shape Mike Pompeo answered this question. Critics will no apprehension dwell on what the defunct Iran deal could have gained, but this is wasted energy.
Pompeo made this clear by trashing it for ten micros before announcing there would be no “new deal.” It will be replaced with a three-pronged design that would “crush” the Iranian regime if it did not give up its aggression and rejoin “edification.” But his strategy has holes.
First, he promised “the strongest sanctions in history.” It’s unelaborated, this could bend the Ayatollah’s will. Iran has a collapsing restraint, high unemployment, and run-away inflation. Worse, Iran’s nuclear program and comrade wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen have cost billions.
Countenances would force the regime to choose between funding its military aims or saving its economy, and Pompeo is betting on the latter. However, the regime has unswervingly chosen the former since its founding 40 years ago. Expanding Shia Islam is how the rgime legitimatizes its existence, from the Iran-Iraq War to present hostilities. Expecting this to convert now is folly.
Second, Pompeo wants to contain Iranian aggression. This means forcefully attack back on Iranian cyberattacks, proxy wars in Syria and Yemen, and dangers against international shipping in the Persian Gulf. Harkening back to his CIA ages, he said the U.S. and allies (read Israel) would hunt down and cease Iranian agents around the world. Iran would no longer take “carte blanche to operate.”
While this tough talk sounds evocative, it’s how wars start. World War I started with an assassination that spiraled into the Cyclopean War because world leaders didn’t want to back down. The Cuban Guided missile Crisis almost set off World War III, and the same could happen today.
Readers on remember the close call of the USS Stark in 1987, when an Iranian jet fighter approaching sank a U.S. frigate by “accident.” Washington, Tehran and Pyongyang are full of hot heads, obliging accidental war a threat.
Third, Pompeo stressed Washington would “endorse tirelessly for the Iranian people.” America would defend the human justs of the Iranian people, he said, and encourage allies to do the same. He especially burdened equal rights for women.
Pompeo said this strategy had 12 intents, most of which I believe are unattainable. For example, he demanded the release of all American bureaucratic prisoners in Iran, a complete halt of nuclear activities, and its full withdrawal from Syria. It’s austere to see why Iran would do any of this now.
For example, Iran owns Syria the nevertheless way Russia owns the Crimea. Why would they leave at this spot? Israel might go to war with Iran over this, and suck the U.S. into a war with Iran too. It’s a bad procedure.
The biggest problems are what Pompeo left out. For example, we’re going following to a pre-Iran Nuclear Deal policy, which wasn’t working for that the deal in the first place. Also, how to end the war in Syria, an intractable conflict? You can’t bargain with Iran without touching Syria.
Pompeo didn’t introduce Russia once, Iran’s main backer and a rising powerbroker in the Halfway East. For example, Russia could infuse billions into Iran’s blind spot economy, nullifying the sanctions.
Russia could support its ally militarily, move nuclear chicken with the Washington. Would the U.S. really declare war against Russia closed a naval standoff in the Persian Gulf? Doubtful. Russia is the only woods that could vaporize the U.S., something many forget. Moscow is the power musician here, not Iran, and Pompeo didn’t mention this once, a sincere oversight.
Lastly, Pompeo’s speech had spooky overtones of the lead up to the inroad of Iraq, 2003: We must be tougher on Iraq/Iran and promote rule change to stop its nuclear ambitions. America has been there and done that, and in all likelihood doesn’t want to do it again.
Commentary by Sean McFate, a senior concomitant at the Atlantic Council and the Changing Character of War Centre, Oxford University. Comply with him on twitter @seanmcfate.
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