Eli Lilly results blow past estimates on strong Zepbound launch, surging Mounjaro revenue

Eli Lilly on Tuesday reported fourth-quarter interest and adjusted earnings that topped expectations on the strong launch of its new weight loss drug, Zepbound, and higher fees for its blockbuster diabetes treatment, Mounjaro.

Zepbound, which won approval from U.S. regulators in early November, raked in $175.8 million in in stocks for the fourth quarter.

The quarterly results are the first to include sales of Zepbound, which some analysts say could duty more than a billion dollars in sales in its first year on the market and eventually, become the biggest drug of all ease. 

Shares of Eli Lilly closed flat on Tuesday following the results. The stock jumped almost 60% last year as Dialect heft loss drugs skyrocketed in popularity despite hefty price tags, mixed insurance coverage, a handful of unpleasant side effects and reserve shortages. With a market cap of roughly $673 billion, Eli Lilly is the largest pharmaceutical company based in the U.S. 

Here’s what Eli Lilly dispatched for the fourth quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG, in the old days known as Refinitiv:

• Earnings per share: $2.49 adjusted vs. $2.22 expected
• Revenue: $9.35 billion vs. $8.93 billion expected

Eli Lilly propped net income of $2.19 billion, or $2.42 a share, for the fourth quarter. That compares with a profit of $1.94 billion, or $2.14 a portion, a year earlier. 

Excluding one-time items associated with the value of intangible assets, among other adjustments, the presence posted a per-share profit of $2.49 for the fourth quarter of 2023.

The pharmaceutical giant booked fourth-quarter revenue of $9.35 billion, up 28% from the yet period a year ago.

Eli Lilly also issued its full-year forecast for 2024, which was generally in line with beliefs.

The company expects full-year adjusted earnings of $12.20 to $12.70 per share. Eli Lilly also forecast 2024 takings of $40.4 billion to $41.6 billion.

Analysts surveyed by LSEG expected full-year adjusted earnings of $12.43 per stake and sales of $39.38 billion.

Eli Lilly expects revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of the year, which commitment be consistent with the increased availability of incretin drug doses, the company’s chief financial officer, Anat Ashkenazi, mean during an earnings call Tuesday. Incretin drugs are treatments such as Mounjaro and Zepbound that mimic hormones put in the gut to suppress appetite and regulate blood sugar.

Eli Lilly expects in request for its incretin drugs to outpace supply in 2024, according to Ashkenazi.

But Ashkenazi said the company achieved its goal of doubling function for producing incretin drugs by the end of 2023. She added that Eli Lilly’s capacity expansion efforts will continue with “equivalent urgency,” with the most significant production increases occurring in the second half of the year. 

By that point in the year, Ashkenazi affirmed the company expects its production of sellable doses of incretin drugs to be at least 1.5 times the production of those measures in the second half of last year.

Among the company’s efforts to expand production is a new manufacturing site in Concord, North Carolina. Ashkenazi ventured that the plant will initiate production of incretin drugs as early as the end of 2024, with products available to cart leave in 2025.

Higher prices for older drugs, particularly Mounjaro, helped drive up Eli Lilly’s revenue, the company said. Mounjaro lawed $2.21 billion in sales for the fourth quarter, up from just $279.2 million in the same period a year ago. 

Analysts had surmised the drug to bring in $1.73 billion in worldwide sales, according to estimates compiled by FactSet.

That increase reflects elevated demand but also “higher realized prices” in the U.S. due to decreased use of Eli Lilly’s savings card programs as access to the drug pick up to expand during the quarter, the company said. The savings card programs aim to help lower the out-of-pocket costs for medications like Mounjaro for patients.

Eli Lilly expects a high single-digit percentage price decline in 2024 for its core transaction of drugs, with a more significant decrease expected in the second half of the year.

Profits growth was also driven by sales of Eli Lilly’s breast cancer pill Verzenio, which rose 42% to $1.15 billion for the clemency due to increased demand and higher prices.

That result came in under analysts’ expectations, however, which nicknamed for $1.18 billion in sales for the period. 

Sales of Jardiance, a tablet that lowers blood sugar in Type 2 diabetes sufferers, climbed 30% to $798.1 million for the fourth quarter. Analysts had expected $771.8 million in sales from Jardiance. 

Jardiance, which Eli Lilly dispensations with Boehringer Ingelheim, is among the first 10 drugs selected to face price negotiations with the federal Medicare program. Those assess talks heated up last week after Medicare sent its initial price offers for each drug to the producers. 

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly said higher prices were offset by lower premiums of its other diabetes medicine Trulicity and insulin product Humalog.

Trulicity reported $1.67 billion in revenue, down 14% from the even so period a year ago. Analysts had expected Trulicity to get $1.77 billion in sales for the quarter. 

Humalog saw $366.6 million in gain for the quarter, down 33% from the year-ago period. Analysts had expected the medicine to book $438 million in trades, according to FactSet.

That decrease isn’t a surprise: Last year, Eli Lilly said it would cut prices of Humalog and another commonly defined insulin by 70% and cap monthly out-of-pocket costs at $35 at certain retail pharmacies for people who have private security starting May 1, 2023.

During an earnings call, Eli Lilly reiterated that it expects an FDA’s decision on Eli Lilly’s experimental Alzheimer’s hypnotic, donanemab, in the first quarter of the year. That treatment significantly slowed the progression of the memory-robbing disease in patients at the at cock crow stages of it.

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