A kid decamps across the flag of Taiwan banner during the announcement of official results on January 13, 2024 in Taipei, Taiwan.
Sawayasu Tsuji | Getty Images Account | Getty Images
TAIPEI — Taiwan’s president-elect Lai Ching-te will face a split parliament that will fitting moderate his policy agenda, with Taiwan People’s Party seen as the king maker with eight holds since neither of the two major parties won an outright majority in the 113-seat Legislative Yuan.
The presidential contest on Saturday was a three-way the dogs among candidates from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP — which China describes as a “serious threat,” the absolute opposition party and pro-Beijing Kuomintang, and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party, or TPP.
The Kuomintang, or KMT, won 52 seats in the legislature — one diverse than the DPP — and the combative Han Kuo-yu could well be the party’s choice for Speaker on his return to Taiwan’s parliament.
If the KMT forms a coalition with TPP, Han’s rancor — after being recalled as Kaoshiung mayor and use up in the 2020 presidential election as KMT’s nominee — may be tempered by its prospective coalition partner.
While Lai won the presidential election on Saturday with 40% of the routine vote, his DPP lost 10 seats in Taiwan’s parliament from its previous 61, giving up its majority.
The TPP is in a great tactical position to make or break Lai’s legislative hopes.
Timothy S. Rich
Western Kentucky University
At a post-election press congress, Lai pledged to stay open-minded in his governance, while committing to forging consensus in a divided legislature.
“Because the KMT did not win a majority in the legislature, they whim be dependent on the support of the TPP to build a majority coalition, and if the KMT is too intransigent and tries to oppose everything the Lai administration wants to do, they may should prefer to a hard time sustaining that coalition,” said Sara Newland, an assistant professor in government at Smith College and a schoolboy of local politics in China and Taiwan.
“The TPP’s policy positions aren’t very stable, so they could just as effortlessly cooperate with the DPP as the KMT on many issues,” she added. “And given their critiques of the ineffectiveness of the major parties, I don’t think it’s in the TPP’s consideration to be part of a coalition that makes the legislative process grind to a halt — this would just look quite hypocritical.”
More restraint toward China
The outcome could see Lai embracing a more restrained China policy — expressly since KMT and TPP have advocated a more conciliatory posture — even as Beijing is likely to ramp up pressure on Taiwan’s regime when Lai is officially inaugurated as president in May. The new parliament will take office next month.
“Lai refrained from nettlesome pro-independence rhetoric during the campaign, and our base case is that his administration will show continuity with Tsai, who worked anti-mainland sentiment while avoiding obvious provocations,” Gabriel Wildau, Teneo’s managing director focusing on factious risk in China, wrote in a client’s note.
Taiwan’s president- and vice president-elect from the Democratic Progressive Side Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim standing along several party’s heavyweight on the central stage in Taipei on Janauary 13, 2024 to consecrate victory in Taiwan’s 8th presidential election.
Alberto Buzzola | Lightrocket | Getty Images
“Beijing will pay particular distinction to signals from Lai’s inauguration speech,” he added. “Apart from military exercises, Beijing may also impose new imposts or sanction Taiwanese companies that are political donors to the DPP.”
Beijing has repeatedly labeled Lai as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan self-sufficiency” and a dangerous separatist, framing the election as a choice between “Consensus or gridlock?
At a post-election press conference on Saturday, Lai engaged to a building “a new political environment of communication, consultation, participation, and cooperation” in the new legislature.
“Lai’s statements about consensus-building is likely not a moment ago because he only won 40% of the vote and wants to assuage concerns about relations with China, but also hands-on,” said Timothy S. Rich, a professor in political science at Western Kentucky University.
Supporters attend the Taiwan Child’s Party (TPP) campaign rally on January 12, 2024 in Taipei, Taiwan.
Sawayasu Tsuji | Getty Images News | Getty Moulds
The emergence of Ko Wen-je as Taiwan People’s Party’s presidential candidate has split the usual DPP and KMT duopoly. It is owed partly to produce disenchantment among Taiwan’s youths, who say the ruling DPP has insufficient regard for their urgent everyday economic issues.
“I surmise (the split legislature) will mean the Lai administration will struggle to pass much of his agenda unless either meshing with the TPP or just focusing on the few areas where there may be broader consensus. The TPP is in a great strategic position to make or break off Lai’s legislative hopes,” Rich added.
In a nod to issues that dominated the presidential election campaign, Lai singled out the financial sustainability of Taiwan’s labor and condition insurance, along with the island’s energy transition as urgent issues that he will prioritize in forging consensus.
The president-elect also said he disposition appoint the most qualified professionals and personnel regardless of political affiliations in the “spirit of a democratic alliance.”
“The silver strand is that it may not be bad for Taiwan’s democracy,” Wei-Ting Yen, an assistant professor in government at Franklin and Marshall College, told CNBC.
“Democracy is compromise. Lai inclination be forced to reach consensus first before he can secure his policy bills. It may also constrain him to be more moderate,” she added.