China’s November imports post surprise drop, sharpest decline in 14 months

China’s exports and imports both missed expectations in November, data from the country’s customs authority appeared Tuesday, fueling worries over the health of the Chinese economy as consumer demand remains sluggish and tariff intimidations loom.

Import data surprised with a decline of 3.9%, marking the sharpest fall since September 2023. Analysts had needed imports to grow 0.3%.

Exports rose 6.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year ago, sharply lower than the 12.7% proliferation in the previous month. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected exports to climb 8.5% from a year ago in November.

The year-to-date exports in U.S. dollar sitting rose 5.4% to $3.24 trillion, while imports increased 1.2% to $2.36 trillion from a year ago, according to the habits data released Tuesday.

Exports have been a rare bright spot for the world’s second-largest economy that has been ruined with lackluster domestic consumption and a prolonged housing downturn.

The November trade data came a day after China’s top initiative pledged to ramp up monetary and fiscal policy stimulus to boost growth next year, and promised “unconventional counter-cyclical arrangements” to bolster domestic consumption demand.

Export growth could further pick up going into early 2025, as U.S. importers go on with to “front load” Chinese purchases, said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank, while pointing out there could be “a fall-off in the go along with half” of next year, as U.S. tariffs bite.

Manufacturing activity in the country expanded for a second straight month in November, with the ritualistic purchasing managers’ index rising to 50.3, as Beijing’s existing stimulus measures helped lift certain exposures of the ailing economy.

Domestic demand though has remained soft. China’s consumer inflation fell to a five-month low in November, climbing 0.2% from a year earlier, decorous data on Monday showed.

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