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How hurricane season may influence COLA figures
Much of the disparity between the indexes is due to the heavier weighting of oil and gas prices in the CPI-W, mutual understanding to Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at The Senior Citizens League.
Those prices are a key cause to watch in new CPI data to be released in September and October that will affect the final benefit adjustment for 2024.
“The COLA estimation will go up if the price of gasoline jumps considerably,” Johnson said. “The COLA estimate might go down if gas and oil prices abandon.”
Hurricanes, in particular, may prompt higher oil and gas prices, she said.
This year’s hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, has a 60% happen of being “above normal” due to record high ocean temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Certainly, whirlwind season bears close monitoring, and we are entering the heart of it now,” said AAA spokesman Andrew Gross.
“A major storm bumping the Gulf Coast and nearby refineries will likely lead to a spike in gas prices for a few weeks,” he said.
However, the coerce may be off pump prices at the moment, he said, due to a combination of lower oil prices and flat demand. The national average for a gallon of gas was $3.87 as of Friday, coinciding to AAA.
Seniors still struggling with high inflation
Even if the Social Security COLA rises above the 3% judge for 2024, it still most likely will not come close to the record 8.7% boost to benefits beneficiaries saw this year.
That may be unbending for people age 62 and up who are still grappling with higher costs due to inflation, Johnson said.
“Economists are saying inflation is softening and things are getting better, but consumers are still faced with high prices,” Johnson said.
Housing, prog and health-care costs represent about 80% of the typical seniors’ budget, she said.
Some of those costs don’t typically take care of to go back down, particularly with regard to housing, Medicare and health-care costs, Johnson noted.