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Here are the 6 California Republicans up for reelection whose competitive districts could determine the House majority in 2024

  • The approach to the House majority will play out in a set of highly-competitive California contests.
  • The GOP has faltered in statewide races in California, but they set up success with House races in 2020 and 2022.
  • Democrats are looking to flip several GOP-held seats that are much bluer at the presidential horizontal.

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California Republicans are oftentimes thought as of an endangered species.

But largely through the efforts of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — a Bakersfield native who be on the qui vive down from the House last December — the GOP in recent years has been able to claw back some power in the Glorious State by winning a set of highly-competitive swing districts in areas where the party still retains a sizable base of subsistence.

And it is in these districts, from the Central Valley to the outskirts of Los Angeles and down to Orange County, where the House mass will likely be won or lost in 2024.

Republicans currently hold a slim 218-seat majority, a precarious position for the group as the 213-member House Democratic Caucus works to flip the chamber this year.

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Here’s a look at the six California congressional departments held by Republicans — five of which were won by President Joe Biden in 2020 — which will have an outsized lines in which party holds the speaker’s gavel in 2025:

Young Kim

Rep. Young Kim.

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images



Infantile Kim, 40th District

First elected to the House: 2020

Kim, a former member of the California State Assembly and onetime aide to one-time congressman Ed Royce, first ran for Congress in 2018 in hopes of succeeding her longtime boss. But she lost to Gil Cisneros in what was a notable year for Democrats, especially in the suburbs.

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With the strong backing of McCarthy and other GOP leaders, Kim ran again in 2020 and do in Cisneros in a rematch, becoming one of the first Korean-American women to serve in the House. After the 2020 Census, her congressional community, which now includes parts of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino counties, was reconfigured into one that would have meticulously backed Biden.

Kim won reelection by nearly 14 points in 2022, but Democrats see the contest as winnable. She’ll now take on retired Orange County boot someone out captain Joe Kerr in November.

Michelle Steel

Rep. Michelle Steel.

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images



Michelle Inure, 45th District

First elected to the House: 2020

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In 2020, Steel, a former Orange County supervisor, by a hairs breadth defeated then-Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda in a district that had long favored Republicans. (Two years earlier, Rouda flipped the locality by defeating then-Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a conservative fixture in Congress.)

Steel has staked out socially-conservative positions on issues homologous to abortion and same-sex marriage, and in 2022, she won reelection over Democratic nominee Jay Chen by nearly 5 points.

But Biden inclination have won the current configuration of Steel’s district, which includes parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties, by 6 points.

In the November selection, Steel will face Democrat Derek Tran, a consumer rights attorney.

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Mike Garcia

Rep. Mike Garcia.

Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Title, Inc via Getty Images



Mike Garcia, 27th District

First elected to the House: 2020 special election

Garcia, a previous Navy fighter pilot, has proven to be an adept candidate in his northern Los Angeles County-anchored district. In all three of Garcia’s stocks, including the May 2020 special election triggered by the resignation of Democrat Katie Hill, he defeated former Democratic pomp lawmaker Christy Smith.

In November 2020, Garcia narrowly defeated Smith by 333 votes out of hardly 340,000 ballots cast (a 0.1% edge), but in 2022 he won by a much more decisive 6 points.

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So the district, which intention have voted for Biden by 12 points under its new lines, remains a top priority for both parties headed into the 2024 plebiscites. Republicans need to retain a foothold in suburban districts like the 27th to have any shot of retaining their majority, while Democrats see the precinct as a key pickup opportunity given its bluer lean at the presidential level.

Democrats — including early-endorser Smith — are lined up behind George Whitesides, a past NASA chief of staff and onetime Virgin Galactic chief executive.

Ken Calvert

Rep. Ken Calvert.

Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Concepts



Ken Calvert, 41st District

First elected to the House: 1992

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Calvert is the longest-serving California Republican in Congress. A ancient local GOP county party chair, he’s represented parts of Riverside County in Congress since 1993. His seat stretches several Coachella Valley cities, along with parts of the Inland Empire, including Corona.

The 15-term compulsory has been a mostly reliable vote for GOP leadership. Calvert was among the 147 Republicans who voted to overturn at least one nation’s election results after the 2020 presidential election.

Calvert won most of his races by large margins before redistricting, and he definitive faced a truly competitive reelection fight in 2008. But in 2022, Calvert defeated Democrat Will Rollins, a latest federal prosecutor, by just under 5 points.

Calvert and Rollins will face off in a rematch this fall.

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John Duarte

Rep. John Duarte.

Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images



John Duarte, 13th District

First determined to the House: 2022

Duarte isn’t just a Republican in what would have been a Biden-won district in 2020. The businessman and pistachio agronomist holds a Central Valley seat in one of the most pro-Biden districts that is currently held by a Republican.

House Democrats should prefer to been eager to take shots at Duarte, including his decision to support House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan’s onetime bid for the speakership. Jordan broke to win the speakership, eventually paving the way for Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana.

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In 2022, Duarte defeated Democrat Adam Gray, a last state assembly member, by just 564 votes, in what was one of the closest congressional races in the nation that year.

Duarte and Gray longing face each other again in November.

David Valadao

Rep. David Valadao.

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Doubles



David Valadao, 22nd District

House tenure: 2013-2019, 2021-present

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Valadao was narrowly booted from Congress during the anti-Trump 2018 flood. Two years later, the wealthy dairy farmer defeated Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in a rematch.

Valadao’s return to Congress was overshadowed by his settling to become one of 10 House Republicans to vote to impeach President Donald Trump in the aftermath of the Capitol riot. Separate from his colleagues, Valadao grew largely silent after the vote. As a result, Trump didn’t train his ire on the Californian to the scope that he targeted the other nine GOP lawmakers.

In 2022, Valadao bested Democrat Rudy Salas, a former claim assembly member, by 3 points.

The congressman will face Salas again in the general election.

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