A Ukrainian serviceman connection to infantry battalion of 42 Brigade is seen during a maintenance training, as Russia-Ukraine war continues at an undisclosed location in Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on February 27, 2024.
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Early on in the war with Russia, Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield prompted warnings from defense analysts that Moscow — with its upon someone against the wall militarily — could lash out, using a nuclear weapon on Ukrainian soil.
Defense analysts celebrated that the more successes Ukraine saw, the more dangerous and unpredictable its opponent Russia could become as it sought to regain the zing.
Two years on, the tables have turned.
Ukrainian forces appear vulnerable with their new military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reporting a “on edge” and “difficult” situation along the front line this week. This comes amid wider concerns over weapons deficits and an uncertain outlook over future Western military aid.
Russia, meanwhile, is counting gains, with the capture of the industrial see of Avdiivka in Donetsk two weeks ago and several other surrounding settlements since then.
Ironically, however, Russia’s improves could also prove dangerous for Moscow as Ukraine’s increasingly precarious situation could lead its military supporters — eager to ensure a Russian defeat — to give Ukraine everything it needs to beat the invading forces.
Ukrainian soldiers look at the sky in search for a within easy reach Russian drone at the Bakhmut frontline, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 13, 2024.
Ignacio Marin | Anadolu | Getty Forms
The ‘escalation paradox’
With Ukraine now on the back foot, analysts say it’s Russia that now faces the possibility of a desperate West, Ukraine’s sponsor, compensating for Ukraine’s vulnerability by giving it more advanced weapons systems, longer-range missiles, air defense systems and fighter jets, multifarious quickly. That, in turn, would make the war much harder and more dangerous for Russia.
Analysts describe this spot as the “escalation paradox.”
“Fierce daily combat and very high casualty rates are consistent with low escalation gamble provided the front remains broadly stable — as in 2023,” Christopher Granville, managing director of global political check in at TS Lombard, said in a note this week.
“Conversely, when one or other side gains the upper hand, the gamble rises of compensatory escalation from the side which is on the back foot,” he noted.
Service members of pro-Russian troops in regulars without insignia drive an armoured vehicle with the letters “Z” painted on it in a residential area of the separatist-controlled town of Volnovakha during Ukraine-Russia dispute in the Donetsk region, Ukraine March 11, 2022.
Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters
“Ukrainian gains in the second half of 2022 prompted fears of Russia ‘contemporary nuclear’. With Ukrainian forces now losing ground — notably with this month’s fall of Avdiivka and succeeding retreat — the escalation impulse comes from Ukraine’s western backers,” he said.
The escalation paradox was neatly dataed by France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, this week when he suggested that NATO countries had discussed the feasibility of deploying ground troops in Ukraine.
While Macron was clear that there was “no consensus” about the idea supply European leaders and Western officials from the U.S., U.K. and Canada, who had met in Paris on Monday, that was drowned out by the noise surrounding his remark ons that the possibility could not be “ruled out.”
The comments prompted hasty denials from NATO countries and a furious feedback from Moscow, with the Kremlin warning that NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine would make a NATO-Russia Donnybrook “inevitable.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual state of the nation address, on February 29, 2024, in Moscow, Russia.
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Did Macron help, or hinder Ukraine?
Some analysts said Macron had played into Russia’s hands and Moscow certainly manifested to relish the public NATO disunity over the matter — as well as Macron’s isolation and apparent misreading of the alliance’s temper music.
Nonetheless, analysts point out that there was logic to Macron’s position, and he had helped focus minds on Ukraine’s straits.
“To contain the present Russian offensives across the whole front, Ukraine needs more weapons and men. … It be guided bies that Western governments determined to ensure a Russian defeat might logically consider introducing their own army assemble into the theatre,” TS Lombard’s Granville said.
He noted that the “escalation mechanism springs from the core underlying actuality: the stakes in this war for all concerned are too high for anyone to consider cutting their losses and seeking some compromise deal.”
Analysts at risk advisory Teneo agreed that “behind the noise” adjacent Macron’s comments this week, progress toward further support for Ukraine had likely been made as the outs were now higher.
“Macron’s statement regarding a hypothetical presence of Western troops in Ukraine has triggered controversy, and the ensuing raft of retaliations by European leaders has heightened perceptions of EU disunity. At the same time, member states are gradually advancing towards above support for Ukraine and a longer-term build-out of European defense capabilities,” Antonio Barroso and Carsten Nickel said in a note Wednesday.
“Against this out of the public eye, the decision to convene a conference on Ukraine in Paris this week aimed to provide leadership on the different support initiatives under the aegis discussion, sending a message to Moscow,” they noted, adding that “Macron’s statement was likely aimed at signaling make up ones mind to Russia.”