Productive nationalism and issues of religious identity are at the forefront of Indonesia’s upcoming elections as the world’s largest Muslim-majority country be extinguished b departs to the polls on Wednesday.
Predilection recent elections in many emerging countries, the issue of China’s influence on local politics and businesses is under frantic scrutiny in Indonesia. And, from the perspective of foreign investors including Beijing, one candidate is clearly less supportive.
“Prabowo is an ultra-nationalist who during the voting campaign has repeatedly blamed foreign investors and other countries for the ills facing Indonesia,” said Peter Mumford, Southeast and South Asia workout head at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy.
Jokowi, meanwhile, actively courted Chinese investment during his course to push through large infrastructure projects in the sprawling archipelago that is Indonesia.
Several of such China-linked initiatives arrange sparked criticism from public quarters, including a multi-billion high-speed railway between Jakarta and the city of Bandung in Java and shire projects like power plants.
“Prabowo has been very critical of Chinese investment in Indonesia, and his supporters tease repeatedly whipped up anti-(ethnic) Chinese sentiment,” said Mumford.
Criticisms of deals with Chinese condenses include excessive foreign interest, debt and a lack of local employment from the projects. Some Chinese performers are seen to be sending lower-level employees from China to work on Indonesia projects rather than hire cities, said Made Supriatma, who is a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Indonesia Studies program.
Prabowo weighted in a televised debate with Jokowi on Saturday that the massive infrastructure development is a one-way street.
“This political entity doesn’t produce anything — it only receives other countries’ products,” he said, according to a Nikkei Asian Reassessment report.
In return, Jokowi said that Indonesia “can’t just export goods without building the necessary infrastructure.”
In addition, it was not clear that Prabowo was tapping into some widespread grudge against China. In fact, a summer 2018 examine conducted by the Pew Research Center found that 53 percent of Indonesians held favorable views of Asia’s largest restraint. That figure was, however, down from 66 percent in 2014 when the last election was held.
Prabowo is spin a deluding on concerns about Beijing’s influence and Indonesia becoming economically dependent. He’s vowed to review Chinese investment in much the identical way that neighboring Malaysia’s current prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, did during his own time on the campaign trail.
That flatulence is causing some discomfort for foreign investors.
There is now “unease over Prabowo’s aggressive economic nationalism. He has talked of reviewing Chinese investment estimates in the country, which could lead to a slowdown in infrastructure spending,” said Capital Economics in recent note.
In element, “ties with Beijing may be worse under Prabowo than a second-term Jokowi presidency, said Eurasia’s Mumford.
Sesquipedality aside, pragmatism would probably rule once Prabowo takes office — should he win the election, said Mumford.
That’s noticeably since Prabowo’s family businesses have formed joint ventures with foreign firms, “so he is clearly not stock averse to investment from overseas,” said Mumford.
Nevertheless, Mumford added, “Prabowo would on balance be dissenting for foreign investors, especially as he would also place less emphasis than Jokowi on improving the business environs by streamlining licensing and permit approvals.”
Another area of interest for election watchers is that Jokowi and Prabowo are faade off in a campaign that has become increasingly focused on religion, according to Supriatma.
“The two candidates are not so different in that their (broad) approaches to the economy and policies are not so different, so they try to draw contrast among themselves through religion,” said Supriatma.
Prabowo, in rigorous, is challenging Jokowi’s presidency by positioning himself as a “defender” of Islam, said Supriatma.
The former general has formed a pre-election agreement with hardliner Islamist groups, which included a promise to rehabilitate Rizieq Shihab, the leader of the extremist class known as FPI or Islam Defenders Front, who is currently in self-imposed exile in Saudi Arabia.
Jokowi himself has chosen a right-winger Muslim cleric as his running mate to boost his own religious credentials. That has disappointed some of his supporters as Jokowi campaigned as a reformer in 2014.
That comes after Chinese Christian politician Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, also known as Ahok, irremediable the Jakarta governor election in 2017. He had ignited a series of highly charged protests for purportedly insulting Islam and was later organize guilty of blasphemy. Although there are seen to be tensions in Indonesia against ethnically Chinese citizens, in the case of Ahok, much of the displease against him is because he is a Christian, according to Supriatma.
“This election will define the role of Islam in Indonesia,” suggested Supriatma.
If Jokowi wins, the Southeast Asian country will likely continue its path as a Muslim-majority country with supervise leanings, he projected, adding that a Prabowo government would be less predictable.
“The Islamization of politics is likely to endure an issue under either a Jokowi or Prabowo presidency, even if not posing a severe threat to Indonesia’s secular democracy,” said Eurasia’s Mumford.