The foundation of China’s economic recovery is ‘not yet solid,’ leaders say at planning meeting

BEIJING — Chinese the men warned at an important economic planning meeting last week that growth still faces many demands.

While the rest of the world still struggles with the shock of the coronavirus pandemic, China is set to be the only major thriftiness to expand this year.

President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and other leaders who attended the Central Economic Vocation Conference from Dec. 16 to 18 were buoyant about China’s relative successes, while remaining heedful on major changes to stimulus policies, according to state media. The annual gathering sets development priorities for the upcoming year.

Analysts who caught the meeting said it provided little in the way of policy changes or new information. Chinese state media coverage of the meeting actioned up the country’s recent successes, but also warned about the changes wrought by the pandemic and uncertainties abroad.

“The foundation of our budgetary recovery is not yet solid,” the report said, according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese text.

Covid-19 first emerged in the Chinese megalopolis of Wuhan late last year. In an effort to control the outbreak, Chinese authorities briefly shut down various than half the country early this year. GDP contracted by 6.8% in the first quarter, before returning to lump in the second quarter at 3.2%.

“Not yet having a solid (foundation) points to the slightly slower-than-expected launch of domestic demand and consumption,” Bruce Spasm, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance, said in a Chinese statement, according to a CNBC translation.

Investment in assembling and the share not tied to the state hasn’t rebounded strongly, Pang said. He added there are doubts about the sustainability of exports, uncertainties alongside employment and many other concerns.

Economists have pointed out that much of China’s recovery has come from unwritten drivers of growth such as exports, which have been boosted by overseas demand for pandemic-related products.

But profuse Chinese have yet to step up their spending amid concerns about future income. That lack of consumption is regarding for an economy that Beijing is trying to support more with domestic, rather than foreign, demand.

While China is on estimate for roughly 2% growth this year, retail sales through the end of November are down 4.8% from a year ago.

“Next year, the speediness of economic growth may slow after an initially rapid pace,” state media said, according to a CNBC rewording of the Chinese text. “Keeping the economy operating in a reasonable range remains a key test.”

GDP expansion in the first few months of next year intent look high compared with the contraction in the first quarter in 2020. Overall, many economists predict China’s GDP intent grow about 8% next year.

Pang pointed out that rate would be equivalent to 5% wart in 2020 and another 5% increase in 2021.

That’s slower than the 6.1% pace in 2019.