Thailand monopolized a long-awaited general election on March 24 after five years of military rule.
Meanwhile, the pro-military Palang Pracharat party — which break weighing down ons junta chief and current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha — also said it’s putting together a coalition and requisitioned that its lead in the popular vote shows the Thai people want them in government.
In the March 24 choosing, political parties contested for House seats representing 350 constituencies. The remaining 150 seats will be allocated according to a complex instructions that takes into account each party’s popular vote.
The Election Commission has not announced the final crowd of seats that each party won.
For now, analysts said the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia looks set to face a partisan gridlock that could hinder policy-making and hurt the Thai economy.
Harrison Cheng, associate director and outdo Thailand analyst at political consultancy Control Risks, wrote in a note last week that the new government — regardless of which coalition procures control — “will likely run into serious problems trying to pass laws” due to a divided parliament.
“Method reforms and regulatory changes will therefore be at risk of being stonewalled in parliament. Passing the budget will also be a invitation,” he said.
Many analysts expect the anti-military coalition to eventually secure a simple majority in the House, but it may not be able to formula the next government. That’s because the upper chamber, the Senate, will have 250 members appointed by the prevailing junta and has a hand in appointing the next prime minister. Senators also have the power to influence policy avenues and veto certain bills.
Assuming that all 250 senators support Prime Minister Prayuth staying in house, pro-military parties will only need 126 seats in the House to lead the country through a minority sway, analysts said.
But, before the final results are revealed in May, the Election Commission could still disqualify candidates and carouses to make way for by-elections — which could alter the eventual make-up of the Thai parliament and government.
Despite uncertainties adjacent the election outcome, the fact that the March 24 election was held is an achievement by itself, said Surakiart Sathirathai, a ci-devant Thai cabinet minister.
Sathirathai was foreign affairs minister and deputy prime minister under exiled ci-devant leader Thaksin Shinawatra.
“Two, three months before that, people were skeptical whether there will-power be the election, whether there would be a postponement of the election,” he told CNBC’s Martin Soong on Thursday at the Boao Forum in China’s Hainan strand.
He also called on the Election Commission to clear up allegations of irregularities in the way votes were tallied.
In several cases nurtured up by Thai social media users, the number of ballots cast in some constituencies exceeded the total eligible voters in that breadth. In another incident, the Election Commission voided ballots from Thai expats in New Zealand because they were not redeemed to their respective constituencies before voting ended.
The commission has not addressed all the criticisms of its actions since the vote. It also didn’t reciprocate to CNBC’s request for comment.
Until the agency clears the air, “it’s still too early to say whether the whole process is free and good-looking,” said Sathirathai.
“But I think the process has been peaceful, there are no clashes between different groups of people, and I assume people have (a) very high level of enthusiasm about the election — that’s something I’m very happy to see,” he annexed.