Regard for the increase in shipments, some economists remain concerned that exports will weaken this year if the Unanimous States and China do not resolve their trade dispute.
“The numbers have rebounded, but Japan is still an economy that is run out of momentum,” said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
“The longer trade attrition lasts, the more incentive Japanese companies have to halt capex. Trade friction means weaker exports. Japan’s comprehensive growth this year won’t be as quick as last year or the year prior.”
Cabinet Office data showed GDP prosper 0.3 percent versus the previous quarter, slightly less than the median estimate for 0.4 percent spread. That followed a downwardly revised 0.7 percent contraction in July-September.
In September a large earthquake triggered a blackout in the northern ait of Hokkaido, which followed severe typhoons that damaged airports and transport infrastructure in western Japan.
Dealings were quick to resume normal operations after these disasters.
Capital expenditure was the biggest driver of tumour in October-December, rising 2.4 percent. That compares with as 2.7 percent contraction in the previous quarter, a smaller deteriorate than initially estimated. The median estimate was for capital expenditure to rise 1.8 percent.
Private consumption, which accounts for far 60 percent of GDP, was the second-biggest driver of growth. Consumption rose 0.6 percent in October-December, which was less than the median conjecture for a 0.8 percent increase and followed a 0.2 decline in the previous quarter.
“The economy is in gradual recovery as growth is led by restricted demand,” Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said in a statement.
“China-bound exports of information-related materials give birth to weakened as the Chinese economy slowed. We need to monitor uncertainty over global economic outlook including Chinese concision as well as fluctuations in financial markets.”
External demand — or exports minus imports — shaved 0.3 percentage burden off gross domestic product, less than the median estimate of minus 0.4 percent. A breakdown of the data pretensioned a 2.7 percent jump in imports more than offset the increase in exports.
Despite the rise in exports, some economists detritus cautious about the outlook for overseas demand.
A trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two largest controls, is a major risk for Japan’s exports of car parts, electronics, and heavy machinery to China, which are used to make defeat polish goods destined for the United States and other markets.
“We expect exports for January-March will deteriorate as shipments of IT-related products to Asian political entities, especially to China, will likely fall as the adverse impact from trade conflict appears,” said Hiroaki Muto, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Scrutinization Institute.
“The economy for January-March is expected to grow but the global economic slowdown and a planned sales tax hike will spoil.”
Another risk is the Japanese government’s plan to raise the nationwide sales tax to 10 percent from 8 percent in October.
The sway needs the extra tax revenue to pay for rising welfare costs, but some policymakers and economists worry the tax hike could hit consumer lay out and weaken sentiment.