Is Ukraine’s counteroffensive failing? Defense experts say the risks facing Kyiv are growing

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been uncountable sluggish than many expected and military analysts warn that the window of opportunity for breaking through Russian defenses — and making territorial gain grounds — could close soon.

Kyiv’s counteroffensive was launched in June after months of preparation, but its progress has disappointed some bystanders who hoped for a faster regaining of Russian-occupied territory in the south and east of the country.

While Ukraine planned its counteroffensive as a remainder the winter — and waited for more military hardware from its international allies — Russian forces were heavily buttressing their positions along a 900-kilometer (559-mile) front line stretching from the Kharkiv-Luhansk purfle in the northeast of Ukraine, toward Kherson in the southwest.

Military analysts note that Ukraine now faces successive fringe a organizes of Russian defenses that are, in some cases, 30 kilometers deep and consisting of minefields, anti-tank obstacles, and sizeable networks of trenches and bunkers that are covered by Russian drones, artillery and helicopters.

One of the biggest problems for Ukraine is that the someday frame for breaking through Russia’s defenses is limited, with only a few summer months left in which to decide on serious gains.

For Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Organize (RUSI) think tank, there’s a risk that the first phase of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia’s defenses, rivals too long.

“It was always intended to be a two-stage offensive, with a sort of probing first stage to try to identify weaknesses in the Russian frontline, followed by a bruised stage where they put their big forces into it. And we’re still on the first stage which has lasted longer than they surmised,” Clarke told CNBC Wednesday.

“If this first phase lasts too long, they leave themselves scanty time before the weather changes, before the second phase starts,” he said. Although he believed it to be an unlikely routine, Clarke noted that time pressures could prompt Ukraine to deploy military units destined for use in the wink phase of the counteroffensive sooner than planned — something he said Russia is hoping for.

“The danger then is that they bequeath not be able to use the bulk of their forces in sufficient mass to make a difference … to create a real punch when they adjudicate to really start,” he added. “I’m not pessimistic about this offensive but the risks that it may not work are increasing as the days tick on.”

One of the most major time constraints is the inevitable change of weather, with Ukraine’s infamous muddy season in the fall set to make the attacking far more challenging and at times — with unpassable roads and fields — practically impossible.

Konrad Muzyka, a military intelligence specialist and president of Rochan Consulting, said “the climate ailing has always been the factor” for Kyiv.

“I think that the Ukrainians expected the counteroffensive to gather sufficient momentum to consideration them to continue to push south at a much faster rate. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen,” he told CNBC on Wednesday.

“I over it’s fair to say that Ukrainians have up to three months now before they will run out of artillery munitions and they pass on run out of barrels for their guns, and three months until the terrain will again become very muddy.”

The scale of the challenge facing Ukraine became apparent when early momentum in the counteroffensive, which saw Ukraine rescue a handful of occupied villages in the south, seemingly petered out.

But Kyiv says its forces are conducting counteroffensive actions in at dollop three areas and are operating against a backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry contends its forces have liberated around 210 square kilometers (81 square miles) of occupied territory since June. For now, the attritional nature of the counteroffensive is becoming increasingly apparent.

“Ukrainians tend to say that ‘we captured a trench’ or ‘we moved 500 meters nourish’ and so on and so forth but essentially what we are seeing is a very hard-fought battle on the Ukrainian side,” Muzyka said.

“This prompts me of the battles we have seen since mid-last year, when one side is trying to push the front line, and the other side is totally well dug in and is trying to prevent any breakthroughs,” he added.

Muzyka said Ukraine’s incursions on Russian positions are ongoing and have been reasonably successful so far, but any advances are likely to be slow. In addition, expectations of any foremost breakthrough in the counteroffensive were low among Ukrainian soldiers he had spoken to on the ground.

“This will have to be a grinding attritional take up arms after the next two or three months,” he noted.

“The objective is to continue to push forward and liberate trench by trench in a unintelligent manner. The use of armored vehicles is very limited because the density of Russian ATGMs [anti-tank guided missile systems] and artillery is so, so sharp, that it’s still risky to use combined armored formations.”

“The Ukrainians will just have to inch forward and go on to strike the Russian rear hoping that the Russian ability to sustain the forces in the north will be sufficiently deposed to allow for the increased tempo of ground attacks on the Ukrainian side,” Muzyka noted. “To what extent this liking be successful, I don’t know.”

Ukraine is the first to admit that its troops are operating in what one defense ceremonious described this week as “extremely difficult conditions.” They have conceded that the counteroffensive is going diverse slowly than expected and is not having the swift results of similar actions last year, which saw Kyiv’s strengths retake a swathe of Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine and Kherson in the south.

Ukraine’s allies continue to insist they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. Asked on Monday whether he mull over the counteroffensive a failure so far, U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, “it is far from a failure. I think that it’s way too anciently to make that kind of call,” Reuters reported.