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Here’s what 12 European Central Bank members said about interest rates this week

A carve of the Euro currency stands in the city centre of Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on January 25, 2024.

Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Doppelgaengers

A host of economists and monetary policymakers gathered in New York this week for the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Conferences — including numerous decision-makers from the European Central Bank.

CNBC spoke to 12 members of the ECB’s Governing Convocation at the event to unpack their latest views on the interest rate outlook and inflationary pressures, after euro zone prize rises cooled to 2.4% in March.

The ECB opted to hold rates steady in April and next meets to vote on nummular policy on June 6.

Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB

The ECB’s figurehead delivered a firm message that reflected her statements in latest press conferences: markets should expect an interest rate cut soon, barring major surprises.

“We just indigence to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process, but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don’t have a major shock in event, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy,” Lagarde told CNBC’s Sara Eisen.

ECB President Christine Lagarde: EU growth will come from wage increases while inflation falls

François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Bank of France

Agreeing to Villeroy, the ECB should cut in June so that higher rates do not cause too much damage to the euro area economy, which last year barely avoided a recession but fell into stagnation.

Barring a major surprise before the next Governing Council in antediluvian June, “we should cut rates because we are now confident enough and increasingly confident about the disinflationary path in the euro section,” Villeroy told CNBC’s Karen Tso.

“There is now a very large consensus that it is time to take this surety more or less against what I would call the second risk. The first risk is to act too early and to let inflation go upwards again and this would be a threat,” he said. “But the second risk would be to be behind the curve and to pay a too high cost in terms of economic activity and employment.”

Watch CNBC's full interview with Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau

Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank

The “presumption is increasing” of a June cut, said Nagel. He added that there were caveats, including the risk of higher oil penalties.

Core inflation is still high, service inflation is high. For the June meeting we will get our projections, so we will get our new prognostications and if there is a confirmation that inflation is really going down, and we will achieve our target in 2025, as I said, the likeliness is becoming higher that this rate cut is here for the June meeting,” Nagel explained.

Watch CNBC's full interview with German central bank chief Joachim Nagel

Robert Holzmann, governor of the Austrian Main Bank

One of the Governing Council’s

Mario Centeno, governor of the Bank of Portugal

For Centeno, a more dovish member, it is “close by time to change this monetary policy cycle” given the recent slowdown in inflation.

“I’m sure that we settle upon deliver the response that is consistent with the recovery of the euro area economy that we have in our forecast,” Centeno suggested, adding that market expectations for June were “very clear.”

Watch CNBC's full interview with ECB policymaker Mario Centeno

Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland

Makhlouf swayed the most recent data sets had shifted his view on rates. Before Christmas he was not even ready to rule out over hikes.

The ECB concluded its run of 10 consecutive rate hikes in September, when it brought its key rate to a record 4%.

“I think we’ve now all through the last few weeks seen enough data to say that we’ve reached the top of the ladder, and at our last meeting, from my perspective, we’ve got considerable confidence that we can start to reduce the tightening in our monetary policy stance,” Makhlouf said.

ECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocks

Pierre Wunsch, governor of the Native Bank of Belgium

“We would really need bad news for not cutting in June,” Wunsch told CNBC, referring to two surprisingly disputatious inflation prints or oil prices spiking. ECB staff projections, wage data and the rate of services inflation will also be major, he said.

Regarding a potential follow-up cut in July, Wunsch said he would be “on the cautious side.”

Watch CNBC's full interview with the Belgium central bank governor

Boris Vujčić, governor of the Croatian National Bank

Location whether the ECB would be influenced by recent events in the U.S., where

Gediminas Šimkus, governor of the Bank of Lithuania

Šimkus also underscored differences between inflation in the U.S. and Europe, with the former driven by fiscal policy along with commodities, and the modern centered on energy and food.

“We don’t follow the Fed… and now the ECB will be the central bank to be followed,” Šimkus said. This is consideration the potential global knock-on effects of a stronger dollar due to higher for longer rates in the U.S., he said.

Šimkus added that his widely known baseline was for “about three” rate cuts this year.

ECB policymaker says he's expecting 'about three' interest rate cuts this year

Edward Scicluna, governor of the Central Bank of Malta

Scicluna divulged the background of a “very weak economy, very weak economic growth for the last six quarters” in the euro zone was key to classification decisions. That context is despite divergence between resilience in the services-oriented south and weakness in the more manufacturing-focused north, he suggested.

“Everything is pointing towards… declining inflation all over, including wages, food, energy and so on,” he said.

“It’s assorted a question of whether you’re risk averse and scared because of risks that you wait to cut. One could have cut rates way undeveloped in March or even April,” he continued, adding that he hoped a majority of Governing Council members would with little a June cut.

June is 'most probable' for first interest rate cut, ECB's Scicluna says

Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of the Bank of Latvia

Kazāks said the ECB could be “confident” the worse was behind it in spells of inflation, despite risks.

Two inflation readings are still due before June, he noted, meaning a cut is not guaranteed — but the “probability is entirely high.”

June is 'most probable' for first interest rate cut, ECB's Scicluna says

Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland

Like other policymakers, Rehn said that it would be apportion to cut rates in June if inflation continues to stay in line with projections. He flagged tensions in the Middle East as a possible risk.

“So far the escalation has been avoided, and we’ve seen that the market reaction to the events was rather moderate… but there is even now a certain risk of escalation,” he said.

ECB's Olli Rehn says geopolitics poses the biggest risk to the rate outlook
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