Freight ships loaded with cars and containers for export are departing at the port of Yantai in Yantai, China, on July 31, 2024.
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U.S. trade ties with China will remain tense no matter who wins the election in November, according to Carlos Casanova, higher- ranking economist at Swiss private bank UBP.
Casanova’s view is shared by other experts who have said that both the Republican and the Classless presidential nominees — Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — will remain tough on China.
Trump has proposed up to 100% schedule of charges on Chinese goods and a blanket tariff of 10%-20% on all other imports, while Harris is expected to largely stand by persevere with Biden’s tariff policy, experts told CNBC.
“A Trump victory is highly likely to increase swop and economic hostilities between the U.S. and China, ramping up the trade and financial decoupling between the two countries,” said Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University.
Stronger levies by Harris cannot be ruled out either, given Biden not only retained Trump’s tariffs, he piled on more. The U.S. in May asseverated stiff duties on about $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar stalls, lithium batteries, steel and aluminum.
During the debate, Harris did not give specifics on her China policy, but said that “a approach about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century.”
“Which means focusing on the names of what that requires, focusing on relationships with our allies, focusing on investing in American based technology so that we win the line on A.I. and quantum computing,” Harris added.
“We think that ongoing trade tensions, both with U.S. and Europe, are here to guy. I think in the U.S. it’s well understood, the support for more stern actions against China is bipartisan. So it doesn’t matter who acquires the election,” Casanova told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
The U.S. has warned about Chinese overcapacity issues, with Cache Secretary Janet Yellen reportedly saying in May that China’s excess industrial capacity threatened both American and European firms, as agreeable as the industrial development of emerging market countries.
In April, Yellen met with Chinese officials to discuss the overcapacity spring and market-oriented reforms, saying in prepared remarks that “A healthy economic relationship must provide a level playing lea for firms and workers in both countries.”
Beijing has been charged with dumping goods as domestic demand sang-froids down, inviting heavy duties on Chinese exports from several countries, besides facing charges of heavily underwriting industries such as EVs that has drawn tariffs from U.S. as well as European countries.
Speaking after the debate, Marko Papic, chief strategist of BCA Into said that “I don’t think we really got clarity on anything” after the debate, adding that “it does appear that the peddle was surprised by her [Harris’] performance at least a little bit. But again, it’s not sufficient to force us as investors to start pricing in a dramatic factious shift.”
—CNBC’s Dylan Butts contributed to this report.