CNBC Daily Open: Inflation battle is ‘absolutely’ done

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international sells newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Strain what you see? You can subscribe here.

Wall Street up
The S&P 500 closed higher for the fifth uncurved session buoyed by the latest inflation print. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 242 points, while the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.03% attainment after spending most of the session in negative territory. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped, while U.S. oil bonuses dropped 1.6% after President Joe Biden said Iran may not attack Israel if a cease-fire deal is reached.

Cisco job opens
Shares of Cisco rose more than 5% in extended trading after the network gear supplier demanded it would cut 7% of its global workforce. The company will take a $1 billion pretax charge to implement its restructuring program. It also heralded better-than-expected quarterly results, despite a third consecutive quarterly drop in revenue. The beat was driven by subscription gain from Cisco’s $28 billion acquisition of Splunk. Before Wednesday’s close, Cisco shares were down 10% this year, while the Nasdaq was up nearly 14%.

M&A snack
Mars is acquiring snack giant Kellanova for $35.9 billion in cash, combining iconic brands dig M&Ms, Pringles and Cheez-Its under one roof. The move expands Mars’ snacking portfolio and comes amid a consumer pullback on expending and increased competition from private-label options. Kellanova, spun off from Kellogg last year, saw its net sales top $13 billion in 2023. “We buy partnerships to grow businesses, and we look to grow for generations,” Mars CEO Poul Weihrauch said on CNBC’s “Money Movers.” Kellanova apportionments rose 7.8%

Cooling inflation
U.S. inflation rose 0.2% in July, as expected, driven by housing costs, pushing the annual class to 2.9%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly for an annual rate of 3.2%. As inflation trends cease operation to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, speculation grows around a potential interest rate cut. The futures market prophesies a 25-basis-point reduction at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting and for rates to be a full percentage point lower than the current 5.25%-5.5% file by the end of 2024. However, Fed officials remain cautious about the timing and scale of future cuts. Here’s the inflation fractionation for July 2024 — in one chart.

Proxy fight
Activist investor Elliott Management plans to launch a proxy fight at Southwest Airlines, presenting up to 10 directors to its 15-person board. Elliott, which currently holds an 11% economic interest in the airline, purposes to call a special meeting to push for changes. Elliott blames CEO Bob Jordan and chairman Gary Kelly for the decline in the callers’s fortunes and has called on Southwest to oust them.

[PRO] Winning trade
Despite the promise, Oracle’s AI investments are raising have relations due its high stock valuation, competition and uncertainties around profitability and integration. Here’s a trade that wins if Soothsayer’s AI spending fails to pay off.

Just like a meteorologist watching one storm cell pass and another prosper, markets appear to be permanently walking around with umbrellas up awaiting sunnier days. With the latest inflation evidence offering some relief, attention is now turning to the size of the Fed’s potential interest rate cut. 

“Net, net, the inflation outbreak is over and the inclusive picture of core consumer price pressures is quite benign, and even reminiscent actually of the spring and summer of 2019 earlier the pandemic struck,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said.

“The flare-up in inflation from earlier this year is all through,” Rupkey said, adding that while inflation isn’t completely gone, core consumer price pressures are equable. Rupkey expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to give a “thumbs up” for a rate reduction at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. 

“Any Fed seemly waiting for a little more data to make the decision on whether to cut interest rates got it in spades this morning,” he revealed. “The risks for Fed officials at this point are more on the downside for the economy and labor markets rather than on the upside for inflation.”

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Investigation, echoed similar sentiments about inflation, saying the fight was “absolutely” done. 

“I’ve been predicting since the summer of 2022 that we get to 2% to 3% by the end of endure year and early this year, and we’re basically there,” Yardeni told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “We improvise we’ll get to 2% by the end of the year.”

However, Yardeni pointed to geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East, as his first-rate concern, noting the recent surge in oil prices due to concerns about a potential Iranian attack on Israel.

As market watchers debate the size of Fed rate cuts, CNBC’s Jeff Cox enlists a closer look.