A Trump government Nuclear Posture Review released Friday shows a greater willingness to use atomic weapons first and calls for development of new nuclear weapons and capabilities to bar rivals such as Russia and China.
The NPR document released by the Pentagon also said the U.S. pass on develop for deployment a “low-yield” nuclear warhead for submarine-launched ballistic ballistic missiles “that is able to penetrate adversary defenses.” It also said the U.S. liking “strengthen the integration of nuclear and non-nuclear military planning.”
“This is a mignonne sharp departure from current policy or even pre-Obama approaches,” said Lisbeth Gronlund, senior scientist and co-director of the Global Certainty Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “President Trump is embarking on a appraise path — one that will reduce U.S. security both now and in the longer duration.”
Gronlund added that her biggest concern with the new policy is “an underlining on integrating nuclear and conventional forces to facilitate nuclear warfighting. This new regulation deliberately blurs the line between nuclear and conventional forces and eliminates a beat it firewall.”
The Defense Department’s document concludes that the nation’s atomic triad — land, sea and air-based capabilities — remains “the most cost-effective and strategically dive means of ensuring nuclear deterrence.” The nuclear triad has been a centerpiece of the realm’s strategic defense since the 1960s but U.S. defense officials have groused it relies in part on an aging stockpile of weapons and delivery systems at a heretofore when Russia and China are modernizing their own nuclear forces.
Coinciding to the document, the U.S. nuclear forces have suffered as a result of “consistent underfunding” and it reasons that the nation must make “significant and sustained investments” atop of the coming decade to deter rival superpowers.
“U.S. nuclear weapon modernization purposefulness cost about 6.4 percent of the current Department of Defense budget at its crest,” said Michaela Dodge, a policy analyst specializing in nuclear weapons action at Heritage Foundation’s Center for National Defense, a conservative Washington-based propose b assess tank. “The value that the United States is getting out of its nuclear rub way surpasses it.”
In his note introducing the strategy document, Defense Secretary James Mattis indited, “This review comes at a critical moment in our nation’s history, for America confronts an worldwide security situation that is more complex and demanding than any since the end of the Chill War. In this environment, it is not possible to delay modernization of our nuclear forces if we are to embalm a credible nuclear deterrent.”
The review also indicated that the modernization of the atomic triad and the associated command and control system must remain a pre-eminence for the Pentagon. It also affirmed specific replacement programs initiated by the Obama distribution, including new nuclear ballistic missile submarines, strategic bombers, atomic air-launched cruise missiles and intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Specifically, the Argosy is funding development of the Columbia-class nuclear missile submarine, which repays the Trident missile-armed Ohio-class submarine program. Construction of the first Columbia-class small craft by prime contractor General Dynamics is set for 2021 and the program is expected to fetch nearly $270 billion over its life cycle, based on sway estimates.
On the missile side, nuclear upgrades planned include renewing the military’s current 400 silo-based Minuteman III missiles. The review also supplicate b reprimands for updating hundreds of ICBM launch facilities. Replacement is expected to originate in 2029, according to the Pentagon.
For the nation’s nuclear-capable bomber force, counting the aging B-52 Stratofortress and B-2 stealth bombers, there are plans underway to supplant them with Northrop Grumman’s B-21 long-range strike bomber. The Pentagon look forwards the first B-21 Raider bomber beginning in mid-2020s, with a projected get of $550 million per plane.
The F-35 stealth fighter — one of the military’s biggest and most valuable acquisition programs — also received attention in the document with the Pentagon noting that “the Synergistic States is incorporating nuclear capability onto the forward-deployable, nuclear-capable F-35 as a replacement” specifically for the posted generation of aging dual-capable aircraft. Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor on the F-35 program, which could be valued at assorted than $1 trillion over the 55-year life cycle of the program.
“Refurnishing our dual-capable fighter bombers with next-generation F-35 fighter aircraft wishes maintain the strength of NATO’s deterrence posture and maintain our ability to bold deploy nuclear weapons, should the security situation demand it,” the march past said.
Among the other investments planned is the so-called “low-yield” atomic warhead that could be launched underwater. This warhead with undersized explosive force is in response to Russia, which developed underwater drones that are masterful disposed to of carrying low-yield warheads.
“The only purpose of this adding another utterance type is to enable … a more surgical, low-yield strike,” stipulate Gronlund, a physicist by training. “We’re sort of primed to engage in this description of nuclear warfighting. This brings us closer to the edge. We still insufficiency some kind of spark though.”
Also, Gronlund said that the new atomic warhead isn’t needed because the U.S. already has bombs and air-launched cruise projectiles with a low-yield capability. She also said the Trump policy is table to the “very long glide path” of the U.S. reducing its emphasis on nuclear weapons use.
But the NPR spars that the “low-yield” warhead for the U.S. Trident missile would be “a comparatively low-cost and near-term modification to an existing means that will help counter any mistaken perception of an exploitable ‘gap’ in U.S. regional deterrence proficiencies.”
The document also calls for the U.S. to develop “a modern nuclear-armed sea-launched sail missile.” It said the “low-yield” option on the Trident missile and the sea-launched voyage missile would “provide additional diversity in platforms, range, and survivability, and a valuable hedge against subsequent nuclear ‘break-out’ scenarios.”
“Unfortunately, this NPR does not argue for alleging ‘strategic stability’ nor does it explain whether, how and why the call for new U.S. nuclear potentials will reduce the threat of nuclear conflict,” said Thomas Countryman, earlier acting undersecretary of State for arms control and the chairman of the Arms Management Association, a nonpartisan disarmament group based in Washington.
But others keep up that the new nuclear weapons strategy makes sense and argue that there’s a necessary to strengthen nuclear deterrence capabilities, including through smaller “low-yield” shells.
“It realistically assesses international conditions and addresses impacts of these evolutions for nuclear forces, including strengthening deterrence by reintroducing low-yield atomic weapon options to the U.S. nuclear weapon arsenal,” said Dodge, the Estate analyst.
Dodge also said the document “highlights negative safe keeping trends since the end of the Cold War, particularly the mistaken belief that Russia’s track of development will be benign.”
At the same time, the document cites atomic threats faced as China aggressively expands its missile technology and atomic capabilities. It said Beijing also is “engaged in increasingly aggressive behavior in not at home space and cyber space.”
Even so, the document said Washington “does not require to regard either China or Russia as an adversary and seeks stable with reference ti with both. We have long sought a dialogue with China to intensify our understanding of our respective nuclear policies, doctrine, and capabilities.” It also express the U.S. seeks “to improve transparency” as well as “to help manage the risks of miscalculation and misperception.”
The atomic posture document also mentions threats posed by rogue systems such as North Korea and Iran.
“Russia and North Korea fool increased the salience of nuclear forces in their strategies and plans and induce engaged in increasingly explicit nuclear threats,” said the NPR. “Like Russia, China is pursuing foot new nuclear capabilities tailored to achieve particular national security aspirations while also modernizing its conventional military, challenging traditional U.S. military lead in the Western Pacific. “
Finally, the NPR said the Iran nuclear deal “may constrain Tehran’s atomic program” but added that the Islamic republic still “retains the know-how to produce weapons grade uranium for use in a nuclear weapon if it decides to do so. This, mixed with Iran’s ongoing missile testing, is a serious concern.”