Earnings are expected from a third of S&P 500 theatre troupes in the week ahead, and there will also be an important report press card on the economy, with second-quarter GDP expected to be the strongest in four years.
President Donald Trump down plenty of headlines in the past week, and fallout from some of those could come forth in the week ahead. Traders will be watching China early Monday to see what good of move occurs in its currency. Trump on Thursday and Friday criticized China and Europe for determination down their currencies at the expense of the dollar. The dollar lost wide 1 percent on his comments over two days.
Trump also said in an sound out with CNBC that he might slap tariffs on $500 billion in Chinese goods, a remark that weakened stocks Friday, but stocks ended the day little silvered. For the week, the S&P 500 was barely positive, up 0.02 percent, but it squeaked out a third weekly advantage and held above the key 2,800 level, closing Friday at 2,801.
“It could would rather been a lot worse,” said Scott Redler, partner with T3Subsist.com. “The market’s trying to do everything it can do to get going. We have Google on Monday, Amazon on Wednesday. On there be any kind of FOMO [fear of missing out]? Will there be diverse upside, or with strong reports are most of the gains priced in?”
Redler weighted if there are some really strong earnings, that may help actuate the S&P well above 2,800 toward the range of its all-time high at 2,872.
There 170 S&P companies and 11 Dow companies report earnings, and earnings broadening is expected to be about 20 percent for the quarter. Some of the names divulging include AT&T and Verizon, reporting on Tuesday; Facebook, General Motors, Ford and Boeing on Wednesday; McDonald’s, MasterCard and Starbucks on Thursday, and Exxon Mobil and Chevron on Friday.
Second-quarter GDP on Friday is guessed to come in at 4.1 percent, according to the median forecast in the CNBC/Dour’s Analytics rapid update. That would be the highest since the third humanity of 2014.
But Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said there could be some surprises in the statistics, given that the government is releasing a five-year benchmark revision to cross out residual seasonality that has been depressing first-quarter growth.
As a dnouement develop, Zandi said first quarters could see upward revisions of a half headland, while second quarters could be revised down a half put and the third quarters could be adjusted down by about a quarter thought. Taking that into account, he expects growth of 3.6 percent for the imperfect quarter of 2018.
Zandi said growth should remain strong for the next two of quarters.
“I think the next year should be very strong because of all the financial stimulus,” he said. “It’s a lot of juice right now into the middle of next year.”
Rates and trade wars, however, are a risk for the economy. “It depends on which parkway we go down. If all that happens is the tariffs that are actually implemented are the a specifics implemented and that’s the end of it, no big deal. That shaves a tenth of a percent off enlargement in the coming year,” Zandi said. “If all the tariffs the government has threatened [excluding the commination on $500 billion in Chinese goods were implemented] that last will and testament shave about a half point off growth in the coming year. You could succeed under the darkest scenario, if Trump does impose all the tariffs on the Chinese. That’s adequate to push us into a technical recession in the second half of next year.”
Including GDP, there is housing data, with existing home sales Monday and new competent in sales Wednesday. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data is released Tuesday, long-lasting goods Thursday and consumer sentiment Friday.
The European Central Bank happen ons Thursday, and that could be a chance for ECB President Mario Draghi to footnote on Trump’s currency remarks during a press briefing.
Monday
Earnings: Alphabet, Illinois Toolworks, Halliburton, Hasbro, TD Ameritrade, Netgear, Kaiser Aluminum, Owens-Illinois, Luxottica Association
8:30 a.m. Existing home sales
Tuesday
Earnings: 3M, AT&T, Verizon, UBS, Lockheed Martin, Eli Lilly, Biogen, Kimberly-Clark, Combined Technologies, JetBlue, Avery Dennison, CIT Group, Harley-Davidson, Interpublic, Stryker, Hawaiian Holdings, Carlisle Cos, Equifax, LVMH, Chubb, Texas Wherewithals, Sherwin-Williams, Trustmark
8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed
9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices
9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m. Usages PMI
Wednesday
Earnings: Boeing, Facebook, Coca-Cola, Imax, General Motors, Ford, GlaxoSmithKline, PayPal, Qualcomm, Visa, Las Vegas Sands, Mondelez, Tupperware, Six Buntings, Trivago, Citrix, Mattel, Vertex Pharma, F5 Networks, Deutsche Bank, Fiat Chrysler, Gilead Methods, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Corning, Anthem, Freeport-McMoran, Boston Systematic
10:00 a.m. New home sales
Thursday
Earnings: Amazon.com, Starbucks, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Comcast, Celgene, Marathon Petroleum, Impressive Dutch Shell, Nestle, Nissan, Amgen, Intel, Aflac, A-B Inbev, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Diageo, AstraZeneca, Alaska Air, PulteGroup, Dunkin Marques, Tractor Supply, American Airlines, Southwest Air, Under Armour, Valero Stick-to-it-iveness, Hershey, Brunswick, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Discover Financial, Spotify, Expedia, Juniper Networks, To begin Solar, Electronic Arts, Raytheon
8:30 a.m. Initial claims
8:30 a.m. Durable goods
8:30 a.m. Approached economic indicators
10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies
Friday
Earnings: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Eni, Synchrony Fiscal, Twitter, Virtu Financial, Moody’s, Merck, Cabot Oil and Gas, Embraer, Aon
8:30 a.m. Legitimate GDP
10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment