As the U.S. and its merchandising partners continue to ratchet up trade tensions, some states – expressly ones President Donald Trump won in 2016 – can expect to feel a much bigger solvent impact than others, according to data compiled by the nation’s largest organization lobbying group.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Monday launched a campaign fighting Trump’s trade policies with a state-by-state breakdown of the impact of swell tariffs on hundreds of specific products recently targeted by China, Canada, Mexico and the European Unity. The data provide a closer look at how the economic fallout from an escalating swop war would be felt unevenly across the country.
Since the Trump furnishing’s decision earlier this year to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum purports, major U.S. trading partners have retaliated by targeting a growing tip of U.S. export products.
China is expected to impose a new 25 percent tax on soybeans in July. Mexico is augmenting duties to pork imports. The EU has targeted $3.2 billion in American goods exported to the 28-member bloc, counting bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
Canada struck back with punitory measures on $12.6 billion worth of American goods, which matured effective over the weekend.
On Monday, the European Union countered a current White House threat to impose tariffs on European auto bring ins, raising the prospect of even higher prices for U.S. consumers and lost sales for American exporters. Unspecialized Motors has warned that any U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles could also fetch U.S jobs.
For the states, the biggest impact of a trade war in dollar terms would be sense by the major exporters like Texas and California, according to the Chamber of Marketing data. Some $3.9 billion worth of exports from Texas could be aimed by retaliatory tariffs, including $1.6 billion from Mexico and $1.4 billion from China. Texas sends $321 million in provisions exports to Mexico each year that could be affected. It exports $494 million in the grist sorghum to China.
Smaller states, where exports make up a bigger stake of overall gross state product, could be hit even harder. Louisiana, for warning, exports nearly $6 billion in soybeans, one of the commodities high on China’s cant of tariff targets.
Several of the states Trump carried in the 2016 appointment would be hit hardest by tariff retaliations from major U.S. trade spouses. In Tennessee, where Trump won 61 percent of the vote, some $1.4 billion in exports could be at endanger. Tennessee sends $202 million worth of auto exports to China that could be hit by assessments, according to the Chamber’s data. It also sends $466 million benefit of whiskey exports to Europe.
The Chamber, with some 3 million associates, has worked closely with Republican presidents and had praised Trump for cluing steep corporate tax cuts in December. But mounting trade tensions bear opened a rift with the president. The group is expected to spend millions of dollars on the midterm polls this year in an effort to help elect candidates who back unasked for trade, immigration and reduced taxes.
European Union warned Monday that a U.S. forewarning to slap import tariffs on cars and car parts would likely cause of further retaliation from its trading partners on $294 billion of American alter b transferred cars and auto parts.
That could hurt South Carolina, where $3 billion of the express’s exports could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. South Carolina sends $1.9 billion usefulness of autos to China, according to the Chamber’s data.
Trump’s tough point of view on trade with China appears to be having little impact on U.S. gists of goods from the world’s second largest economy, as consumer pay out by American households remains strong amid historically low levels of unemployment. China’s dues agency said Monday that its exports to the U.S. were up 5.4 percent in the triumph half of this year and rose 3.8 percent in June.
A new relate from Oxford Economics warned Monday that tariff intimidations, if realized, would extend high tariffs to over 4 percent of in all respects imports – a more than tenfold rise versus the 0.3 percent of drifts hit by the new tariffs imposed so far.
“The threat to world growth is significant,” the report divulged. “In a scenario of escalating tariffs, our modeling suggests world GDP could be cut by up to 0.4 share points in 2019.”
Reuters contributed to this report.