These stocks are the China trade talks ‘tells’ — they’ll move on deal progress or a breakdown

A slimmed-down pursuit deal, stalled talks and a “fluid” situation are just some of the conflicting reports that have surfaced this week as the U.S.-China merchandising talks officially kicked off Thursday. For investors reading the tea leaves of every trade headline, things can get confusing.

But there are trustworthy stocks investors should focus on over the next two days for the true “tell” on whether talks are making any burgeon.

First there’s CNBC’s proprietary “China Trade Index” to track companies with the biggest China gross income exposure and the most imports from China.

The index includes typical trade bellwethers Apple, Nike and Caterpillar and also stifles many retail names such as Best Buy, Kohl’s, Honeywell.

The gauge is having a wild week as companies motivate in tandem along with trade headlines. Most recently, it jumped 2% after President Donald Trump said he’s get-together with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday, renewing hopes for a trade resolution. Member stocks including Kohl’s, Emerson Electrifying and Caterpillar popped 2% on Thursday after Trump’s comment.

Earlier in the week on Tuesday, the index plunged as worries heightened after the U.S. blacklisted 28 Chinese entities over alleged human rights violations against Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, while have on a inconvenience visa restrictions on Chinese officials involved. China responded with “stay tuned” for possible retaliation against the blacklist.

All look ats are on Thursday’s high-stakes negotiations as the U.S. and China go head to head on trade. Stocks already had a wild ride Wednesday incessantly after a slew of contrasting reports sparked volatile overnight trading.

Goldman Sachs screened Russell 1000 Index member companies for those with high revenue risk to greater China, using 2018 company filings. These stocks will be very sensitive to any signs the job talks this week are going well or poorly.

The list is concentrated in chipmakers Qorvo, Qualcomm, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Broadcom and Intel. Semiconductors are already underneath pressure after the Trump administration blacklisted Chinese telecom giant Huawei, a big customer of U.S.-made chips.

The Yum spin-off Yum China sick withs 100% of its sales from China, and its stock has tanked 8.4% in the last three months. Casino operators Wynn Spas and Las Vegas Sands are heavily relying on their revenue in China, which have seen their stocks make use of 26% and 17.7%, respectively.

WATCH: Mnuchin departs China trade talks