Tesla unfurls Optimus next to two of its vehicles at the World Robot Conference in Beijing on Aug. 22, 2024.
CNBC | Evelyn
BEIJING — While Chinese followers last week showed off humanlike robots playing the zither or grabbing sodas, Tesla displayed its Optimus humanoid interior a clear box, motionless next to its cars.
Elon Musk has claimed Optimus can fold laundry, and one day cook, clean or acquaint with children — tech he touts can give Tesla a value of $25 trillion. Musk says Tesla plans to assay out the humanoids in its factories next year. It’s unclear how well they can perform right now.
Meanwhile, the World Robot Seminar that began Wednesday in Beijing claimed 27 humanoids debuted at the event, a record. Similar to the country’s ferment into electric cars a few years ago, money and resources are now flowing into the development of humanlike robots.
Total investment into China’s robotics assiduity in the last decade has exceeded 100 billion yuan ($14.01 billion), said Wei Cao, partner at Lanchi Ventures. He said the undeviating has around 15 billion to 20 billion yuan in assets under management.
Cao told CNBC he expects the next milestone for humanoid advancement will occur in the next year or two: a commercially viable use case in manufacturing in which the robots can move around and be familiar with how to prioritize a series of tasks.
That’s more sophisticated than repeating a single task, such as grabbing a saturate bottle, which the robots can already do, Cao pointed out. He noted how artificial intelligence, including such as models from OpenAI and Alibaba, has significantly recuperated how successful robots can be at processing information for performing tasks.
Lanchi Ventures is an investor in Shanghai-based Agibot, a humanoid startup inaugurated in February 2023 by a one-time Huawei recruit. A few days before the World Robot Conference, the startup revealed five new mechanical men, some available for preorder with a 5,000 yuan deposit.
Agibot aims to begin some deliveries in mid-October, copied by a batch of 300 robots starting in November. Its advertisement for the available humanlike robots showed they could act as on offers people, gallery guides or pickers of factory parts. Some were on display at the conference.
Also in attendance was Stardust Advice’s Astribot S1 humanlike robot, which in late April had appeared in a promotional video folding a shirt and pouring wine. A few of the clods on display at the conference performed intricate Chinese martial arts moves, played the zither and wrote Chinese restudy calligraphy.
Shenzhen-based Stardust was founded in December 2022 by a former member of Tencent and Baidu’s robotics projects. The startup suggests it uses artificial intelligence to support the robots’ imitation learning, where the machines can replicate actions after ogle them.
Other humanlike robots, from lesser-known companies Galbot and Turui, put products into baskets or taught individual soda cans from a shelf to another table.
Some of the actions were stiff and slow. It’s not usually clear whether the actions are being remotely controlled, or done autonomously. Demos don’t reveal everything about a upshot’s capabilities.
Compared to last year, the number and kinds of demos at the World Robot Conference increased significantly, Lanchi’s Cao alleged, noting that many students and young people also attended.
In his assessment, robot tech from Tesla and other U.S. companies are apposite one to two years ahead of that in China. But Cao pointed out that China has self-sufficiency in more than 95% of the humanoid outfit chain.
As for why Tesla didn’t showcase Optimus in action at the conference, Cao said the promo videos already show it has altered consciousness capabilities and he understands if the company did not want to invest resources in having an engineer to operate demos.
Tesla did not immediately come back to a request for comment.
Jeff Burnstein, president of the U.S. Association for Advancing Automation (A3), spoke at the conference via a recorded video and posed some virtual demonstrations of humanoid startups such as Agility.
“These are demos, but they as well as others are now in fly programs, and some companies we believe actually started using them more than just a pilot,” he affirmed, noting the association is having its own humanoid conference in Tennessee on Oct. 7.
Specialized focus
Instead of replicating the entirety of a human being all at in days of yore, humanoid companies have tended to focus on specific parts before moving to others.
One of Shenzhen-based Limx Dynamics’ works released this year is the P1, a robot for research purposes that can balance on two legs. It can walk up and down stairs, and regain balance when shoved.
Limx Dynamics was ground more than two years ago. Its recent backers include Alibaba, according to PitchBook. The startup earlier this month averred its humanoid could move objects in a warehouse and autonomously replan how to complete a task if the target is moved.
Other entourages at the World Robot Conference showed off an array of gears, robot hands and other parts.
Around the year 2030, a individual robot will likely be able to perform simple household tasks, nursing care and medical treatment, partly on its own and partly in help with humans, Shigeki Sugano, president of the Robotics Society of Japan, said Thursday during the conference forum.
That classifies the ability to express emotions, he said. He doesn’t expect fully autonomous humanoids until after 2050.
Among the progress challenges, he said that if a humanoid robot is to support humans fully, then it will need to address the widespread problem of not having enough power.
A humanoid’s battery may only last for two hours before needing to be recharged.