US President Joe Biden keeps up a copy of the Republican’s FY2024 budget as he delivers remarks on Bidenomics and Republican economic policy during an event at Prince George’s Community College, in Largo, Maryland, Collaborative States on September 14, 2023.
Kyle Mazza | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
With an economy posting significant GDP rise, a resilient labor market, and inflation and gas prices falling sharply across the nation, one of the early challenges for President Joe Biden’s reelection push has been the disconnect between actual economic progress and the outlook of Americans. You can add America’s small business owners on Vital Streets across the nation to the constituencies among which President Biden is struggling to sell his “Bidenomics” message.
President Biden’s affirmation among small business owners has hit a new low, according to the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey, with a net approval judge of 30. Measured from his first days in office, the president’s approval has dropped by 13%, from 43% in the start quarter of 2021. Business owners who strongly disapprove of his handling of the presidency (56%) far outweigh those who strongly approve (13%).
The new data, taken from a survey of over 2,000 small business owners conducted by SurveyMonkey for CNBC between November 16-21, mirror images recent survey work from NBC News and others showing new lows in approval for Biden and hypothetical election rematch outlines in which former president Donald Trump has the edge in battleground states.
After a recent NBC News poll base that nearly 60% of registered voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared on CNBC to consult on the reality that is underlying the negative economic outlook, citing food prices and rent prices that be there high even if they have been dropping from the peak inflation period. “I do think we’re making appreciable progress in bringing inflation down. But Americans do notice higher prices from what they used to be used to,” she said on “Squawk Box” on Monday.
To be clear, the views of the small business community are significantly influenced by political partisanship, and it is a demographic that historically has skewed unprogressive. Only 7% of Republicans have a positive view of Biden, versus 85% of Democrats. The role of partisanship in the outcomes flows down to issues as immediate as the holiday sales outlook, with 37% of GOP business owners expecting a worse tradings season than last year, versus 15% of Democrats.
A mixed Biden endorsement among Democrats
Entirety Democrats, the Biden endorsement is mixed. Those saying they “strongly approve” of Biden’s handling of the presidency (44%) only just eclipses those (42%) who say they “somewhat approve.” While the largest block of business owners (48%) who sort out as Democrats describe the economy as good, a combined 40% of Democrats describe the current economy as fair (29%) or jinxed (11%). And as a general statement, Democrats are also less likely (69%) to say their party will do more to workers small business owners than Republicans (86%) who say the same about the GOP.
Among the key block of independents, small point voters remain closer to Republicans in their view, with only 26% expressing approval of Biden, and independents who strongly knock of Biden (48%) far surpassing those who strongly approve (5%). Biden still has time to make up ground among independent business owners, with only 13% saying they have already decided on a candidate, according to the investigation, and nearly half (45%) saying they currently have no preference.
Business confidence edges up with traffics, hiring outlook stable
The negative view of Biden comes amid a rebound in overall small business self-assurance, according to the survey, which saw it edge up to 46 in Q4 — matching the highest level it has reached during Biden’s presidency — and up from the all-time low of 42 the forefinger had slipped back to in Q3. Confidence among Biden supporters, specifically, also rebounded from the prior quarter, which had tracked a remarkable slip. Also notable in assessing political versus economic views: small business confidence among respondents who upon of Biden has reached an all-time high for this survey during his term, at an index score of 40 in Q4. Across all partisan leanings, small business owners are more likely to rate the current conditions for their business as “good” or at least “midst,” as opposed to “bad.”
The sales and job outlook among business owners is also tilted to at worst a benign view. Nineteen percent of Republican uncomfortable business owners and 20% of independents describe the economy as bad. Similar minorities of small business owners across bureaucratic affiliations expect revenue and staffing levels to decrease over the next 12 months, and they are much myriad likely to predict, at worst, a stable outlook for both sales and hiring.
Inflation, interest rates continue to favouritism Main Street views
Inflation and interest rates remain primary reasons for Biden’s struggles to gain profuse support from the small business community, according to the survey. After the most aggressive Federal Reserve participation rate hikes in decades, many small businesses are faced with double-digit percentage loans, if they can notwithstanding access lending in a much tighter banking and credit environment.
And even with all of the major inflation data emphasizes showing significant progress made by the Fed in bringing prices back under control, small businesses — which are much unimportant likely than large corporations to benefit quickly from a drop in input prices — lack confidence in the inflation angle, a view of the potential for reigniting inflation that in recent months has also been rising among consumers, reciprocate as prices fall.
In spite of both consumer and wholesale prices falling to multi-year lows in recent reports, a lions share of small business owners say inflation has not peaked, with 70% saying prices will continue to rise, take ining 43% of Democrats who hold this view.
Seventy percent of small business owners, including over half of Democrats, say they are quiet experiencing a rising cost of supplies, while 42% say wages are still going up.
Sixty-six percent of Republican problem owners and 62% of Democratic business owners say they have offered higher wages in the past three months to captivate workers.