Here’s what Black Friday sales tell us about the retail sector — and our top pick

The break shopping season got off to a solid start over the weekend, as Black Friday’s online sales beat expectations and started to enlarge some much-needed momentum for the retail sector. According to Adobe’s online sales tracker, consumers shelled out a album $9.12 billion shopping online on Black Friday. That’s up 2.3% over last year and well at bottom expectations of a 1% increase. But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. In another early look report, traffic on Raven Friday at brick-and-mortar retail stores rose about 3% over 2021, according to retail tracker Sensormatic, which featured the rise to increased promotional activity and “favorable in-store experiences.” While inflation has squeezed consumers this year, diverse than 166 million people planned to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to the Citizen Retail Federation’s annual survey . That’s 8 million more than last year and the highest estimate since 2017. The certain NRF numbers are due out Tuesday. KeyBanc cited Sensormatic data in a research note Sunday — saying, if accurate, the numbers thinks fitting be higher than what its analysts are seeing. In recent channel checks, KeyBanc sees traffic at physical retailers was “down to like a bat out of hell” year over year. The analysts point out that this year’s holiday shopping calendar is one day longer than in 2021. Varied struggling retailers benefited from this seemingly strong start to holiday shopping. Goldman Sachs claimed retailers like Target (TGT) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) attracted more consumers through deep discounts on offshoots. In a separate note, Deutsche Bank noted “strong demand for beauty” at retailers like Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Kohl’s (KSS), Victoria’s Furtively (VSCO) and Bath & Body Works (BBWI). Apparel retail traffic was also solid. Deutsche Bank analysts phrased American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) was a leader among teens. Other standout performers included Gap ‘s (GPS) Old Navy brand as famously as Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and its Hollister brand. Bottom line With holiday shopping underway, we continue to like off-price retailers in these annoying times. We’re most bullish on Club holding TJX Companies (TJX), which operates T.J. Maxx, HomeGoods and Marshalls. Major full-price retailers father been dealing with inventory gluts, which serve as a bumper crop of cheap merchandise that discounters wish TJX, Ross Stores (ROST) and Burlington Stores (BURL) can turn around for a good profit but also a good allow for for customers. Many of the big box retailers, meanwhile, are still working through inventory gluts as well. They ordered too much this year, in the club a repeat of the pandemic buying spree during 2020 and 2021. But consumer spending shifted from buying devices to experiences like eating out and going on vacation, leaving many retailers with too much stuff. Bad news for those stow aways has been good for TJX, which has outperformed the broader market this year. We see more strong performance ahead. (Jim Cramer’s Good Trust is long TJX. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you thinks fitting receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade quick before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after circulating the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND Secrecy POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY Knowledge PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.