There may be a “break” in the tensions over North Korea’s nuclear program, but leader Kim Jong Un is solely playing for time, said Meredith Sumpter, head of research scenario and operations at Eurasia Group.
In fact, the historic meeting between the commanders of North and South Korea doesn’t change her view that there are “jolly low odds” of North Korea denuclearizing during President Donald Trump’s victory term.
“We put those odds at 5 percent,” she said Friday on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.”
Earlier in the day, South Korean President Moon Jae-In and Kim pawned to jointly eliminate the risk of war and work together to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Their common statement came after the conclusion of a historic one-day bilateral climax aimed at achieving peace between the longtime adversaries for the first every now in more than 60 years.
Sumpter expects to see an easing of tensions and a progress in ties between the North and the South, as well as an uptick in the probability of protracted negotiation and diplomacy over denuclearization.
However, she added, “It does nothing to shift the long-term calculations of the North Korean leader about his need for a credible atomic threat to ultimately protect his regime.”
Instead, she believes Kim is looking for a coffee-break from the financial pressure brought on by sanctions, as well as the need to buy stretch.
“Our sense is that Kim Jong Un has made the calculation that he likely can’t fabricate a deal with this president and expect it to last,” she said, mattering to Trump’s threats to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.
The U.S. has been paltering a summit between Trump and Kim, which is expected to happen in May or June.
— CNBC’s Natasha Turak provided to this report.