Calls grow louder to boycott Beijing’s Olympics — and analysts warn of retaliation from China

Countries and companies outside China face rising pressure to boycott the Winter Olympics in Beijing next year, but China discretion not sit back idly in response, says political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

“Western governments and firms accept mounting pressure from human rights advocates and political critics of China to boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics,” according to Eurasia Heap analysts.

The Games are due to take place between February 4 to 20.

“China will punish countries that boycott the Games with public sanctions and commercial retaliation, but with much greater severity in the athletic boycott scenario,” they said in a set forth published Thursday.

“Campaigners have focused on Beijing’s targeted control of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, which some Western governments have called ‘genocide,'” the report said. “Calls to forgo what activists label the ‘Genocide Games’ will grow as the opening ceremony approaches, increasing risks for sways, corporates, and investors — whether they decide to boycott or not.”

Last month, the governments of Canada, the United Kingdom and In agreement States issued a joint statement accusing the Chinese government of inflicting an “extensive program of repression” on the Uyghur people categorizing detention camps, forced labor and forced sterilizations.

China has repeatedly denied allegations of forced labor and other misuses in Xinjiang. The foreign ministry last month called such claims “malicious lies” designed to “smear China” and “neutralize China’s development.”

Businesses have also been caught in the crossfire.

In late March, H&M faced backlash in China over a allegation — reportedly from last year — in which the Swedish retailer said it was “deeply concerned” by reports of forced labor in Xinjiang.

Champions of the Olympic boycott argue that it is “necessary to punish China for its systemic discrimination against ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang, crackdown on civil freedoms in Hong Kong, and hostility to self-rule in Taiwan,” the Eurasia report said.

Eurasia surveyed three possible scenarios: a diplomatic boycott, an athletic boycott, or a so-called “outlier scenario.”

1. Diplomatic boycott

The most plausible scenario — with a 60% probability — is for the U.S. to join at least one other major Western country in a so-called diplomatic ban of the Games.

“A diplomatic boycott is defined here as downgrading or not sending government representatives to the Olympics and taking other high-profile paces to deny Beijing the limelight as host,” the analysts explained.

Eurasia said the likely participants in a diplomatic boycott inclination be the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia, with the possibility of some European countries joining in.

In Asia, however, U.S. confederates such as Japan, India and South Korea — which have “more complex political dynamics” or deeper cost-effective relations with China — are not expected to join such a boycott.

The diplomatic approach is the least drastic scenario, concurring to Eurasia.

2. Athletic boycott

In this scenario, which has a 30% probability, one or more Western countries could arrest their athletes from participating in the Games, perhaps by applying domestic political pressure. An economic boycott is delineated as the banning of U.S. spectators, broadcasters, and sponsors.

“Athletic and economic boycotts, which are harder for audiences to ignore, would compel even ruder retaliation from Beijing, possibly involving a diplomatic freeze and more widespread consumer boycotts against Western labels,” Eurasia analysts said.

3. ‘Boycott lite’

This is an outlier scenario where tensions between the West and China appease, and there will be “mild political statements about the Games” but no formal boycott, the analysts said, labeling it as “ban lite.”

It’s the least likely scenario and only has a 10% chance of happening, they said, adding: “There is currently not much induce for optimism about the trajectory of Sino-Western relations.”

Here, heads of states might decline to attend the Games and cite record conflicts or other non-political excuses. “Rhetoric would fall far short of an enthusiastic endorsement of Beijing as host, but there order be no declaration of a boycott and no presentation of a united Western position,” the report said.

A boycott of the Olympics wish “diminish any soft power dividend” that Chinese President Xi Jinping had hoped to gain from the event, which swops Beijing “a platform to promote its global status among domestic audiences and project a positive image to billions of non-native viewers around the world,” the Eurasia analysts said.

“Beijing will almost certainly retaliate against hinterlands involved in boycotts,” the analysts said. “Beijing’s direct response to a diplomatic boycott would likely be a reciprocal blacklist of Western events and sanctions against prominent boycott advocates.”