A consent sale sign is seen at the Gap retail store on September 20, 2022 in Los Angeles, California.
Allison Dinner | Getty Metaphors
As some of the nation’s largest retailers report quarterly earnings and revenue this week, Wall Street whim pay close attention to another number, too — inventory levels.
Walmart, Target, Gap, Kohl’s and others are trying to sell by a glut of extra merchandise piling up in store backrooms and warehouses.
related investing news
Their quarterly filings choice serve as progress reports, especially as retailers gear up for the holiday season, a time of higher foot traffic, wild competition for consumers’ wallets and plentiful sales events. Investors want a clearer sense of how much excess abilities retailers have sold off — and how deep they may have to discount to keep merchandise moving.
“Inventory is the most eminent factor,” said Michael Baker, a retail analyst for equity research firm D.A. Davidson. “That’s usually not the casing — usually it’s just a factor. Inventory is going to take on more meaning than the other metrics.”
Retailers are covered by pressure to clear out inventory and start fresh in the next fiscal year. Balancing inventory has taken on additional stress, as economists warn of dwindling savings accounts, rising credit card debt and the risk of a recession.
“The idea is to get freshly laundered in front of an environment where sales may be a little tougher to come by,” he said.
A pandemic hangover
Retailers have dealt with a nifty turnabout over the past six months. Many of the same items that flew off shelves during the pandemic’s earlier times — such as loungewear and coffee makers — have wound up on the clearance rack.
With housing and grocery prices stream, fewer Americans are buying big-ticket and discretionary items. Inventory, which accounts for the value of goods in transit as good as those in stock, also rose due to supply chain issues.
Sudden changes in tastes “from sweatpants to swimsuits and valises” put companies in a tough position, said Oliver Chen, a retail analyst for Cowen.
Retailers typically place groupings about six to 12 months ahead, with bulky items and home goods on the higher end of that. After brood over such strong consumer demand and coping with supply chain-related out-of-stocks, some companies placed oustandinglier or expedited orders.
Big retailers fought so long and hard to build up inventory that they weren’t able to set properly when they needed to slow the influx of merchandise. “You can’t change on a dime,” Chen said.
Walmart and End were among the retailers that shocked investors with significant jumps in inventory levels in the first house, which ended April 30.
Target slashed its forecast twice, once in May and again in June, saying it would eliminate orders, cut prices and take other dramatic steps to clear the clutter.
Walmart’s U.S. CEO, John Furner, acknowledged at an investor day in June that the party would like to “just wish away” most of its excess inventory. He warned it would take “a couple of districts” to get back to a healthier inventory position. A month later, the discounter cut its second-quarter and full-year profit outlook, in part due to assertive markdowns.
Mall retailers, including Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle and Gap, reported similar problems. Some also cut their foretells.
Read more retail coverage
Kohl’s swung from having too little inventory last year to obliging ballooning inventory in the second quarter of this year. Some of that came from beauty merchandise as it opened Sephora researches and a decision to pack and hold goods that arrived at the wrong time or weren’t selling.
Gap’s inventory got hit by a mismatch in size and miscellany. At its Old Navy chain, a push to sell more plus-size items backfired with stores having too many supplemented sizes and too few of the sizes with higher demand.
Not all retailers have struggled with having too much stuff to convinced. Best Buy cut its sales forecast for the year in July, as sales of consumer electronics such as laptops and TVs slow, but its inventory decayed year over year in the second quarter.
Like its peers, Macy’s saw a shift from casual clothing and current in categories to dressier apparel. It also cut its forecast, citing weakening consumer spending. Yet in recent quarters, it has largely skirted a stage inventory imbalance.
CEO Jeff Gennette said on an earnings call in August that the department store used evidence analytics to move swiftly. He said it slowed down orders for brands where it had more flexibility, as it noticed consumers pulling in dire straits on spending and heard about competitors’ inventory troubles.
Big deals, tighter margins
For shoppers, efforts to clear inventory choice mean bigger bargains this holiday season. For retailers, it will mean squeezed profit margins.
Mall-based retailers and others that tell on apparel, home goods and electronics are more likely to still be in a tough spot, said Neil Saunders, handling director for GlobalData Retail, a consulting firm.
Even at a much lower price, summer clothes are tough to supply in the winter, he said. So are one-and-done-type purchases that many people already made during earlier parts of the pandemic, such as a flat-screen TV or a mingle, he said.
Excess inventory could downgrade the shopping experience this holiday season at some stores, too. For benchmark, on recent trips to Kohl’s stores, he said, he had trouble maneuvering around “chockablock full” aisles.
Having too much hot air — even if on discount — could overwhelm shoppers who seek ease, speed and convenience during the busy season. It could get-up-and-go them to online competitors such as .
“A lot of people may walk into stores to look around and they just power walk out again and think ‘I can’t cope with this,'” Saunders said.
Some analysts are already refreshing for the inventory headaches to persist. Last week, equity research firm Evercore ISI initiated a negative tactical barter call on Target ahead of earnings, saying it expects the big-box retailer to post a miss on earnings and indicate it is lull unwinding months of inventory buildup.
The majority of Target’s sales come from discretionary goods, versus Walmart, which pull in a taps most of its sales from groceries.
Still, the holidays could lend a hand for retailers still coping with swollen inventory, said Greg Melich, a retail analyst for Evercore ISI. Shoppers still plan to hit the stores and search for bents, even if holiday forecasts are more muted.