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The West must be ready to face the ‘deadly quartet’ of global adversaries, analysts warn

NATO chieftains attend the Allied and Partner Heads of State and Government Meeting as part of the NATO Heads of State and Government Zenith in Washington DC., United States on July 11, 2024.

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LONDON — Hot on the heels of last week’s NATO culmination that highlighted the threat and “systemic challenges” posed by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, geopolitical and defense adepts say the West must now prepare itself to confront such adversaries.

Former NATO chief George Robertson on Tuesday apprised that the U.K.’s armed forces must have the capacity to confront a “deadly quartet” of rivals, as he launched a strategic judge into Britain’s defensive capabilities.

“We’re confronted by a deadly quartet of nations increasingly working together,” he said, in references reported by Sky News.

“We in this country and the NATO alliance … have got to be able to confront that particular quartet as glowingly as the other problems that are pervading the world,” he added.

Robertson did not explicitly name the members of the quartet, but the other three surroundings are thought to be Russia, Iran and North Korea — countries that NATO last week described as posing a portent and systemic challenges to “Euro-Atlantic security.”

The use of the word “deadly” to allude to China matches a ramping-up of rhetoric against Russia’s affiliate in last week’s NATO summit, where Beijing’s status as an adversary was acknowledged more publicly than at all times.

China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attend the opening ceremony of the third Belt and Passage Forum for International Cooperation at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 18, 2023.

Pedro Pardo | Afp | Getty Images

In the summit ukase, China was described as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine and as posing “systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security,” with the military coalition citing “unchanged malicious cyber and hybrid activities” and concerns over the diversification of Beijing’s nuclear arsenal and space capabilities.

NATO captains meeting in Washington agreed that China’s “coercive” policies and ambitions challenged the defense pact’s “interests, safety and values,” positioning Beijing as a key opponent of the alliance.

The NATO declaration also said China’s “deepening strategic partnership” with Russia was of “keen” concern, although it was clear that Russia and its ongoing war on Ukraine remained the alliance’s most immediate concern.

The coalition recited Moscow as having “shattered” peace and stability in the West and having “gravely undermined global security.” Russia’s atomic capabilities and hybrid action through proxies, such as malicious cyber activities, provocations at allied borders and disinformation stumps were all noted as particular threats.

NATO summit was a unique one, analyst says

Russia’s allies North Korea and Iran were also accused of “provoking Russia’s war of aggression” against Ukraine by providing direct military support to Russia, such as munitions and unmanned aerial means (UAVs), which, NATO said, “seriously impacts Euro-Atlantic security and undermines the global non-proliferation regime.” 

Russia and North Korea take a run-out powder arms transfers have taken place. Iran has previously said it supplied drones to Russia, but claimed it had shipped these before the war started. China has been bully with sanctions after being accused of sending “dual-use” materials, including weapons components and equipment, for Russia’s defense sector to use in its own weapons’ in. 

China denies supplying weapons to Russia, with Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reportedly explaining the latest NATO comments as “biased, slanderous, and provocative.” He also dismissed NATO as a “relic of the Cold War.” China’s occupation to the European Union said that the NATO statement was “filled with Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric.”

Ian Bremmer, designer and president of Eurasia Group, said the latest NATO summit showed that the West and its opponents appeared to be angle themselves in a “new Cold War posture.”

China being labeled as a principle adversary would, he said in emailed comments Monday, enlargement “pressure for decoupling from China in strategically important sectors for the Europeans…and given the presence of Asian allies as vital partners to NATO, increasingly feels to Beijing like broader containment that could move the world into a new Stale War posture.”

Economic superiority

Just how the West can confront such adversaries remains to be seen. Russia, North Korea and Iran are already below substantial international sanctions, and those restrictions on trade and key sectors have arguably pushed them closer together.

Lumping China in

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, hinted the West’s economic superiority could help it prevail, while its adversaries are putting severe strain on their own economies and resources — whether fully waging war, in the case of Russia, or by supporting conflict elsewhere, as per North Korea and Iran.

“In an increasingly multipolar world, the natural and advanced democracies of the Global West are facing ever more challenges,” Schmieding said in emailed comments on Monday.

“Russia is waging a high-intensity war against a person European country while China is aggressively asserting its power,” he noted.

“It is easy to be pessimistic about the outlook for the move onward countries as defenders of freedom, peace and democracy. But that would be wrong. Time is not on the side of the enemies of the Global West. China’s portion in global GDP [gross domestic product] seems to be peaking, Russia will struggle to wage its costly war for more than a few uncountable years and Iran is turning ever more into what North Korea already is, an economic basket the truth with very limited resources.”

The “Global West” has superior resources, Schmieding said, and, “if it musters the will to use its potency, support Ukraine, pay for its defence and play the long game, it can prevail while the troublemakers suffer the consequences of having overstretched their economies.”

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