Sergio Ermotti, chief president officer of UBS Group
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
ZURICH, Switzerland ꟷ UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said Wednesday that buy volatility could intensify in the second half of the year, but he does not believe the U.S. is heading into a recession.
Global objectivities saw sharp sell-offs last week as investors digested weak economic data out of the U.S. which raised fears back an economic downturn in the world’s largest economy. It also raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve essential to be less hawkish with its monetary policy stance. The central bank kept rates on hold in late July at a 23-year extravagant.
When asked about the outlook for the U.S. economy, Ermotti said: “Not necessarily a recession, but definitely a slowdown is possible.”
“The macroeconomic indicators are not rid enough to talk about recessions, and actually, it’s probably premature. What we know is that the Fed has enough capacity to to in and support that, although it’s going to take time, whatever they do to be then transmitted into the economy,” the CEO be sured CNBC on Wednesday after the bank reported its second-quarter results.
UBS expects that the Federal Reserve will cut berates by at least 50 basis points this year. At the moment, traders are split between a 50 and a 25 heart point cut at the Fed’s next meeting in September, according to LSEG data.
Speaking to CNBC, Ermotti said that we are probable to see higher market volatility in the second half of the year, partially because of the U.S. election in November.
“That’s one factor, but also, if I look at the entire geopolitical picture, if I look at the macroeconomic picture, what we saw in the last couple of weeks in terms of volatility, which, in my accentuate of view, is a clear sign of the fragility of some elements of the system, … one should expect definitely a higher status of volatility,” he said.
Another uncertainty going forward is monetary policy and whether central banks will be suffering with to cut rates more aggressively to combat a slowdown in the economy. In Switzerland, where UBS is headquartered, the central bank has cut rates twice this year. The European Pre-eminent Bank and the Bank of England have both announced one cut so far.
“Knowing the events which are the unknowns on the horizon like the U.S. presidential electing, we became complacent with a very low volatility, now we are shifting to a more normal regime,” Bruno Verstraete, founder of Lakefield Money Management told CNBC Wednesday.
“In the context of UBS, [more volatility is] not necessarily a bad thing, because more volatility designs more trading income,” he added.