Iran’s weekend begin on Israel marks a “new paradigm” in the Middle East conflict, which risks escalating into a wider regional war, Chatham Brothel’s Middle East director said Monday.
Sanam Vakil at the London-based think tank said it was a matter of when and not if Israel purposefulness respond after its War Cabinet vowed on Sunday to “exact a price” against Tehran for its overnight aerial assault on the Jewish glory.
“The Israeli leadership will have a hard time not responding. They may not do it immediately, but I think a confrontation between Israel and Iran — which power be priced into the markets — is certainly coming, it’s just a question of when,” Vakil told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
Iran set in motioned more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets inside Israel on Saturday in response to an Israeli stumble on that killed top Iranian officials in Syria.
The attack, though well telegraphed in advance, has presented some occasion for Israel to rehabilitate its image following its monthslong onslaught in Gaza, which many perceive as disproportionate to Hamas’ Oct. 7 fiend attacks.
However, an Israeli counteroffensive risks further escalating tensions between the longtime adversaries from a “screen war into a very direct and open one,” and drawing in their respective allies, Vakil said.
“We have woken up to a new paradigm in the Centre East. The warnings of a regional war have proven to come true,” Vakil said in an additional research note emailed to CNBC.
“There’s not a high-frequency degree of confidence that Israel could strike Iran and get back without dragging the rest of the region into this plainer conflict,” she added.
U.S. response in focus
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Sunday the Middle East was “on the verge” and urged de-escalation between the two countries.
Vakil noted that regional players were now relying on the U.S. and Western confederates to “impose restraint” on Israel to prevent a wider conflict.
U.S. President Joe Biden has already insisted that Washington commitment not take part in any counteroffensive against Iran, even as he reiterated support for Israel and convened G7 leaders to agree on a correspondent response to Iran’s “brazen” attack.
His response moving forward will prove especially sensitive as it could gamble a deciding role in November’s U.S. presidential election.
“What this start on Israel has done is bring a warmness back to the relationship and show that the U.S. has still got Israel’s back. But the U.S. does not, in this key nomination year, want to get dragged into something bigger,” Vakil said.
“Iran is a toxic asset for Washington, and you hand down have Republicans perhaps criticizing President Biden for not being tougher on Iran, so that is an inflection point that emerges completely the campaign,” she added.