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‘The weakest links are cracking’: Investors consider possible Credit Suisse contagion

A Confidence in Suisse logo seen displayed on a smartphone with broken screen and an illustrative stock chart background in Athens, Greece on Pace 15, 2023. (Photo illustration by Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty Dead ringers

Shares of Credit Suisse surged Thursday, rebounding from a fresh all-time low after the beleaguered lender declared it would tap central bank support to shore up its finances.

Switzerland’s second-largest bank said it would borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.68 billion) from the Swiss Nationalistic Bank, providing a moment of relief for investors after the Zurich-headquartered firm led Europe’s banking sector on a wild trick lower during the previous session.

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The Swiss-listed stock was trading around 17% squeaky at 1:35 p.m. London time (9:35 a.m. ET) — a massive swing from Wednesday’s more than 30% dig after its biggest backer said it wouldn’t provide further assistance due to regulatory restrictions.

The abrupt loss of aplomb in Credit Suisse, which came as fears about the health of the banking system spread from the U.S. to Europe, has aroused some to question the “true” worth of Credit Suisse’s stock price.

“We have to step back and look of speed at the viability of the business model [and] at the overall regulatory landscape,” Beat Wittmann, chairman of Switzerland’s Porta Advisors, reprimanded CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“I think the leadership of the bank has to really use now this lifeline to review their chart because obviously, the capital markets have not bought the plan as we have seen by the performances of the equity price and the belief default swaps very recently.”

Banks in crisis: The weakest links are cracking, says advisory firm

Asked for his views on the sharp fall of Credit Suisse’s share price — which released below 2 Swiss francs for the first time on Wednesday — Wittmann said a “brutal” monetary tightening cycle led by bigger central banks in recent months meant companies vulnerable to shocks were now beginning to “really suffer.”

“The softest links are cracking and that’s just happening, and that was entirely predictable — and this will not be the last one. So, now it is really hour for policymakers to restore confidence and liquidity in the system, be it in the U.S., be it in Switzerland, or be it somewhere else,” Wittmann said.

Asked for his advice to investors amongst the market turmoil, he said, “The upside momentum in inflation and interest rates is receding very clearly so I think there is a darned healthy underpinning in capital markets.”

“But I would very strongly recommend sticking to high-quality companies — that means rotten management, strong balance sheets, strong value proposition. And now you can pick them up at more attractive valuations,” Wittmann enlarged.

‘Material weaknesses’

Even before the shock collapse of two U.S. banks last week, Credit Suisse has been surround with problems in recent years, including money laundering charges and spying allegations.

The bank’s disclosure earlier this week of “

Analysts welcomed the succeeding and suggested fears of a fresh banking crisis may be overstated.

“A stronger liquidity position and a backstop provided by the Swiss Inhabitant Bank with the support from Finma are positive,” Anke Reingen, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said Thursday in a experiment with note.

“Regaining trust is key for the CS shares. Measures taken should provide some comfort that a spillover to the sector could be repressed, but the situation remains uncertain,” she added.

Analysts at UBS, meanwhile, said market participants were “grappling with three interrelated but sundry issues: bank solvency, bank liquidity, and bank profitability.”

“In short, we think bank solvency fears are overdone, and most banks impress on the memory strong liquidity positions,” they added.

‘A great turnaround story’?

For Dan Scott, head of multi-asset management at Swiss asset superintendent Vontobel — who used to work at Credit Suisse — it’s not all bad news.

“I would say that Credit Suisse specifically is still one of the in every way’s largest asset managers, it has half a trillion in assets, and certainly this could be a great turnaround story if the mode is good,” he told “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Credit Suisse could have a 'great turnaround' if the situation is handled well, asset manager says

Asked by CNBC’s Geoff Cutmore whether this would lowly investors staying patient despite market turbulence and the scale of outflows from the bank, Scott replied: “Unquestionably. But I think again that the stress that we’re seeing at the moment really should have been predictable.”

“When evaluates come up so fast, certain business models get challenged and I don’t think it is a wealth management business model that get outs challenged. I think much more and why we saw it at Silicon Valley Bank, is private markets are going to be challenged,” Scott enlarged.

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