South African President Cyril Ramaphosa accosts the crowd gathered at the Miki Yili Stadium, ahead of the celebrations for the 25th anniversary of Freedom Day, in Makhanda, Eastern Cape Tract on April 27, 2019.
MICHELE SPATARI | AFP | Getty Images
South Africans are preparing to vote for a new national parliament, 25 years after landmark votes ended white-minority rule.
The African National Congress (ANC) has won every parliamentary vote since 1994, and opinion registers suggest the ruling party will secure another majority on Wednesday.
But, President Cyril Ramaphosa is under escalating pressure to prevent a further erosion of his party’s waning popularity. The ANC has seen its share of the parliamentary vote fall from a tainted of more than 69% in 2004 to 62% in 2014.
The biggest rivals to the ANC are the Democratic Alliance (DA) — the country’s main resistance party — and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a radical leftist group.
The ballot comes at a time when voters in Africa’s uncountable industrialized economy are deeply concerned about several issues impacting their daily lives, with inexpertly half of the adult population currently living below the poverty line.
What’s going to happen?
Almost 50 accessories will compete for the support of nearly 27 million eligible voters, with the ANC tipped to secure somewhere between 54% and 61% of the certify.
The DA, a center-right party which holds the Western Cape, is reportedly expected to win as much as 22% of the vote, while the EFF is set to experience around 10%.
“The ANC will win with a slightly reduced majority, but it is the provincial breakdown which could have grand senses over whether Ramaphosa is able to implement economic reform,” Indigo Ellis, Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, published CNBC via telephone.
“It could even bring into question the entirety of Ramaphosa’s position as president,” Ellis phrased.
The ANC, which spearheaded the struggle for freedom in South Africa, has accrued serious reputational damage by successive corruption stigmas in recent years.
Under its previous leader, former President Jacob Zuma who was ousted last year, the form party was caught up in a series of scandals involving corruption and gross maladministration.
Zuma denies any wrongdoing.
This vote is not about black and white, it is about the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots.’
Pat Thaker
editorial director for the Middle East and Africa at the Economist Brightness Unit
Ramaphosa, a charismatic former trade union leader who succeeded Zuma as ANC leader, has been trying to exhort amends by cracking down on corruption and stimulating economic growth.
Analysts told CNBC that if the ANC were to win enough desire supports next week, the success of Ramaphosa’s reform agenda would most likely depend on the size of the party’s procedural majority.
Who is Ramaphosa?
Once seen as potential heir to Nelson Mandela, Ramaphosa lost out to internal battles within the ANC in the 1990s before affluent on to make a fortune in business.
The 66-year-old lawyer returned to frontline politics as one of the country’s wealthiest politicians in 2014, with a crack net worth of about $450 million.
He was elected as ANC leader in 2017, before replacing Zuma as president in February behind year.
“In many ways, Ramaphosa is rekindling the optimism of the 1990s but — and it is a big but — the economic, political and social problems are far greater now,” Pat Thaker, column director for the Middle East and Africa at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC via telephone.
Alongside concern once again violent crime, income inequality and unemployment, many people in South Africa still lack access to excitement and sanitation. Housing is also a hot button issue in the country, with richer households thought to be nearly 10 times wealthier than exhausted households.
“This election is not about black and white, it is about the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’,” Thaker said.
Commercial edifices and office property stand on the city skyline as night falls, as seen from the 50th floor of the Carlton Centre, in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Tuesday, July 17, 2018.
Waldo Swiegers | Bloomberg via Getty Incarnations
The gap between the so-called “haves” and “have-nots” in South Africa is massive. High-walled mansions and skyscrapers are a constant reminder of the capital enjoyed by some, while there are millions of others living in townships and squatter camps.
Ramaphosa “may not be the last hazard for South Africa, but maybe he is for the ruling party. I think the next election in 2024 could have a completely new beanfeast,” Thaker said.
Why does the election matter for global investors?
South Africa is a member of the so-called BRICS barrier of economies — alongside Brazil, Russia, India and China — and is also a member of the G-20 forum of international governments.
Analysts told CNBC the rainbow land’s forthcoming parliamentary vote would have “symbolic meaning for the rest of the continent” too.
At present, financial markets presume the ANC to win around 60% of the votes, according to Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management. That means an square greater majority would most likely trigger a bullish response among investors.
But, she warned a stronger-than-expected mandate for the ANC could in itself be problematical. That’s because a vote share of more than 60% for the ruling party is likely to “feed a sense of complacency,” potentially put off much-needed reforms.
“The biggest risk, in my opinion, is that the result of the election just means more of the same for South Africa. You can see a lot of people are already blas and frustrated,” Dall’Angelo said.