Armenia’s prime churchman stepped down Monday after nearly two weeks of anti-government grumbles, in a surprise victory for tens of thousands of peaceful demonstrators.
The ex-Soviet republic of relative to 3 million, sandwiched in the mountainous Caucasus region between Europe and Asia, relies heavily on Russia, both militarily and economically.
A metamorphose in government could threaten Russia’s level of influence in the country — connotation the Kremlin will be watching closely as developments unfold.
Serzh Sargsyan, who not play tricks oned as the country’s prime minister for 10 years, is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and was accused of embracing to power by followers of the protest movement led by opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan.
Constitutional coins made under Sargsyan’s government enabled a concentration of power in the involvements of the prime minister.
“I got it wrong,” Sargsyan said in a statement following the let go of Pashinyan, who had been arrested, and nearly 200 detained protesters, most of whom were issue people and students. “I am quitting the country’s leadership and the post of prime on of Armenia.”
Former Armenian PM Karen Karapetyan, an ally of the ousted superior, has assumed the position for the time being, and the parliament must put forward the appoint of a new prime minister within seven days.
Sarksyan’s allies scraps in the government, but the opposition parties are likely to push for greater recognition of the dissent movement. This may be a challenge considering they form a tiny minority in parliament — Pashinyan’s in deadly embrace coalition, the “Way Out”, has just nine seats out of 105 in the Armenian National Putting together.
Still, any potential changes — particularly one triggered by a grassroots-led popular feat — is anathema to nearby Russia, which considers Armenia strategically vital.
“Moscow is definitely nervous, and watching how this plays out with gargantuan interest as it sees Armenia as its backyard and within its strategic umbrella,” thought Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at Bluebay Asset Command. “Putin also despises so-called colored revolutions where grassroots, people power, lay power from established authorities.”
Armenia is a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Graft, a sort of counter to the European Union (EU), which it joined at the expense of capacity memberships in EU partnership projects. It benefits from cheap financing, zing and investment from Russia, and has 5,000 Russian troops defending its trims.
It also relies on Russia as a strategic ally in its long-standing ethnic and territorial challenge with neighbor Azerbaijan over the district of Nagorno Karabakh, which has been the section of numerous firefights, mortar and tank warfare, with around 200 soldiers and civilians killed since 2008.
While the on the qui vive acting prime minister is trusted by Moscow, “I think they desire be nervous at any scenario which saw the current administration ousted and a completely new domination created, e.g. around Pashinyan, whom I don’t think they trust,” Ash replied.
But it’s still completely unknown whether the ousted prime minister’s wield the sceptre party will be pushed from power altogether, said Neil Hauer, an outside analyst based in Tbilisi, Georgia, who focuses on Russia and the Caucasus.
“Russia has so far underwrote the results of the protests against Sargsyan and while Armenia might woo some closer links with the EU, I don’t think Armenia is set to adopt an anti-Russian stance anytime soon,” he said.
Asked if the events in Armenia had any bearing to the Maidan gripes in Ukraine in 2014, which saw former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, a proximal Putin ally, ousted in favor of closer ties to the EU, the Kremlin played it dispassionate.
“For now, we see that the situation is not unfolding in a destabilizing way which is a cause for satisfaction,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov perceived reporters, adding that he did not draw a comparison between the political gestures in Armenia and those in Ukraine in 2014, the latter of which eventually led to Russia’s incursion of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
To keep Russia happy going ship, any new government to emerge in the coming weeks would need to provide reassurance to Moscow that Armenia’s key direction will remain unchanged, Ash said. “Putin loses catch forty winks at night just thinking of the prospect of coloured revolutions, so they last will and testament need to work overtime therein.”