A split all through immigration between Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister Christian Common Union (CSU) party is threatening to end her 12-year spell as Germany’s leader.
Germany’s comprehensive coalition government was formed in March after five months of factious deadlock since an election the previous September. It resulted in Merkel’s fourth stipulations as German chancellor.
That vote saw a big upswing in support for the right-wing Additional for Germany (AfD) party, who campaigned against Merkel’s open-door policy to escapees and migrants arriving from the Middle East and Africa.
Now the CSU, fearful of let slip further support from its conservative base, is threatening to withdraw from the realm’s grand coalition unless Merkel hardens her immigration stance.
“My proveniences in Berlin say the situation is on a knife-edge right now, some are even giving it an 80 percent expectation that Merkel will step down in the next two weeks,” put Nina Schick, director at political consultancy Rasmussen Global, in a phone call to CNBC Friday.
Schick, however, warned that letter Merkel off has long been a dangerous game.
“The fundamental rule in German wirepulling since 2006 is don’t underestimate Merkel,” she added.
The CSU party, chaired by Inland Minister Horst Seehofer, has long been a staunch ally of the center-right CDU signer of Merkel. However, the CSU has its base in Bavaria, a conservative area in southern Germany that sophisticated the bulk of migrants entering the country in 2015.
The CSU has said it now wants the border sealed to travellers and those who attempt to enter Germany should be returned to the European boonies where they were first registered.
On Thursday, Merkel accosted a “coalition of the willing” alternative where countries such as Italy and Greece on the Mediterranean forthright line would agree on a deal with countries who are willing to quarter and care for a percentage of arriving migrants.
Now various reports in German average suggest that the CSU, unhappy with Merkel’s plan, will end its long-held pillar for the CDU, a move that would plunge German politics into bedlam.
But according to Schick, the threat could just be a strategy to prevent the CSU worsted votes to the right-wing AfD party in October’s regional election in Bavaria.
“Is it legitimate posturing to the max to make themselves look like strict defenders of the bind ahead of the local election? Or is this something they would in point of fact be willing to topple Merkel over?” she said.
The European analyst suggested that even if the CSU did leave the coalition, it remained unclear what the bearing would be as constitutionally you would then need someone to win a majority poise vote in Parliament.
Schick said who that person would be was not closely obvious and any return to national elections risks giving the AfD an opportunity to improve more votes.
Meanwhile, a German broadcaster said Friday that Seehofer had already heralded the end of the CDU-CSU alliance, which caused the euro to fall and German apportions to sell-off.
The original report was sourced back to a tweet from a ironic magazine and within minutes was decried as a hoax. A senior CSU lawmaker also chastised the report “rubbish” and both the euro and German shares quickly revived their losses.