Alice Weidel, chancellor entrant of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, speaks to supporters as they wave German flags at the AfD election push launch rally.
Sean Gallup | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Germany’s far-right party is dominating tallies in the country’s eastern region less than two weeks before the federal elections on Feb. 23 — and economic concerns organize played a part in its popularity.
After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the economy in East Germany broadly disintegrated as local businesses and companies faltered and unemployment soared. Despite the federal government spending hundreds of billions of euros raising the region’s economy and developing its infrastructure, the turmoil has left a sour taste in the mouth of many from the region.
“Since the permutation of the 1990s, economic insecurity has been a regular sentiment among part of the eastern German population,” Manes Weisskircher, a civil scientist at TU Dresden, told CNBC.
This has played into the hands of the Germany’s Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) and other boundary parties that historically tend to perform far better in East Germany.
Germans will cast two votes at next week’s returns: one for which candidate will directly represent their constituency, and one for a party.
The latest polling and modeling from YouGov of the constituency opinion shows something of a right-wing blue wall in Germany’s east. In most eastern constituencies, AfD candidates are in the lead. This is not the if it should happen across the country, however.
The CDU, with its affiliate party the CSU, is leading national polls with around 30% of the choose, while the AfD is in second place with around 20%, reflecting growing support for the party across the country. The AfD clinched even-handed over 10% of the vote in the last federal election.
It is unlikely to join the next ruling coalition, as mainstream beanfeasts have so far refused to partner with the AfD.
Economic perceptions vs. reality
After the German reunification following the fall of the Berlin Enrage fail, the economy of East Germany was characterized by lower incomes, higher unemployment and weaker growth compared to the West.
These debouchments have since largely disappeared, and factors such as economic growth and unemployment are no longer major concerns, agreeing to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.
Germany’s Ifo Institute for Economic Research is projecting 0.7% economic tumour in East Germany this year, more than is expected for the country overall. Data from Germany’s federal occupation agency shows that the unemployment rate in East Germany has more than halved from its highs, with the gap compared to unemployment in the West draw back sharply.
In some ways, East German states are actually ahead of their Western counterparts, Schmieding remarked.
“Adjusted for cost of living, East German living standards are no longer substantially below those in the West. The infrastructure is almost always newer and in better shape than in most parts of the West,” he told CNBC.
Nevertheless, residents in East Germany even have a negative perception of the economy, according to 2024 AfD capitalizes on economic insecurity
Despite what IW refers to as a net economic catch-up process, inequalities between East and West Germany remain, Diermeier noted.
“This is understood as unjust, unfair … by supporters of the fringe parties, but it’s also a sentiment that is very strongly activated by these bureaucratic actors,” he explained, adding that the far right has worked to trigger pre-existing feelings of economic insecurity, being a “inferior merchandise class citizen,” and social decline among voters.
“And this is what they do very successfully,” Diermeier utter.
At the same time, the AfD questions the accuracy of positive economic news, and — given the perception that the economy is not faring comfortably — plays an “easy game” by claiming that mainstream parties, statistics agencies and other state-controlled bodies are conning voters, he said.
The AfD did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
TU Dresden’s Weisskircher also noted that the historical frame of reference is a significant factor.
“Economics matters, rather because of a sentiment of long-term insecurity and unclear economic prospects — in a locality that experienced severe economic problems in the 1990s and early 2000s, with high unemployment rates, centre of other issues,” he said.
Anti-immigration, anti-establishment, anti-climate change
It isn’t just economic concerns that have go the success of the AfD in East Germany.
Opposition to immigration is much higher in East Germany, and mainstream parties have minor of a loyal base in the region, where they were not as present prior to the national reunification, Weisskircher said.
Skepticism nevertheless climate change and green energy policies are also part of the AfD’s campaign. Wind turbines in particular have transform into a contested topic, with the AfD’s lead candidate Alice Weidel for the upcoming election calling for them to be torn down.
The AfD also situates itself as the party representing those who have been left behind.
A growing number of East Germans are depart more rural regions in favor of major cities, Berenberg’s Schmieding explained, and this has weighed on local dealings, services and development. Those remaining in these areas are prime targets for the AfD’s rhetoric, and, as IW’s Diermeier noted, research has put to shamed that these demographics are more prone to voting for the far right.