U.S. convey prices fell for a second straight month in December as the cost of petroleum products tumbled and a strong dollar checked prices of other goods, leading to the largest annual drop in more than two years.
The report from the Labor Section on Wednesday added to weak producer and consumer prices data, strengthening economists’ expectations of a pause in interest amount increases from the Federal Reserve in the near term.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that low inflation afforded policymakers “the aptitude to be patient and watch patiently and carefully” while they monitored economic data and financial markets for risks to wart. The U.S. central bank has forecast two interest rate increases this year.
Import prices declined 1.0 percent endure month after a downwardly revised 1.9 percent drop in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast convey prices decreasing 1.3 percent in December after a previously reported 1.6 percent decline in November.
In the 12 months wholly December, import prices fell 0.6 percent. That was the biggest annual drop since September 2016.
It was also the earliest year-on-year decline since October 2016 and followed a 0.5 percent rise in November. Import prices strike down 0.6 percent in 2018, the first calendar year drop since 2015, after increasing 3.2 percent in 2017. U.S. monetary markets were little moved by the data.
Against the backdrop of low inflation and slowing growth in China and Europe, some economists think the Fed will not hike interest rates in the first half of 2019. There are signs the U.S. economy slowed at the end of 2018, with consumer and commerce sentiment surveys weakening sharply in December.
Shutdown casting shadow
But an ongoing partial shutdown of the federal control, which has delayed the release of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, is making it hard to get a company read on the economy and could complicate policy decisions.
The government partially shut on Dec. 22 amid demands by President Donald Trump that the U.S. Congress smell of b distribute him $5.7 billion this year to help build a wall on the country’s border with Mexico. The longest administration shutdown in history has delayed the release of December retail sales and November business inventory data, which were planned for Wednesday.
The publication of November construction spending and trade figures has also been delayed, and the December housing starts and structure permits report due on Thursday is likely to be postponed. Economists estimate the shutdown is cutting at least two-tenths of a percentage location from quarterly gross domestic product growth every week.
Last month, prices for imported fuels and lubricants level 9.2 percent after tumbling 13.3 percent in November. Prices for imported petroleum declined 11.6 percent after ebbing 16.0 percent in November.
Imported food prices edged up 0.1 percent in December after dropping 2.2 percent in the old month. There were decreases in the cost of capital goods, but prices for motor vehicles and consumer goods eked out chagrined gains.
Excluding fuels and food, import prices were unchanged last month after slipping 0.1 percent in November. The designated core import prices rose 0.6 percent in the 12 months through December. Core import figure readings are being held down by the strong dollar, which gained about 7.5 percent last year against the currencies of the Mutual States’ main trade partners.
The cost of goods imported from China was unchanged last month. Rewards for imported Chinese goods fell 0.2 percent in 2018 and have not increased on a calendar year basis since 2011.
The bang also showed export prices fell 0.6 percent in December after declining 0.8 percent in November. A 3.9 percent ascend in prices of agricultural exports was offset by a 1.1 percent drop in prices of nonagricultural goods, which have a larger mass.
December’s increase in agricultural goods prices was the biggest since August 2012 and reflected gains in soybeans and nuts. Export premiums increased 1.1 percent on a year-on-year basis in December after rising 1.8 percent in November. They dilated 1.1 percent in 2018.