Where have all the billion-dollar movies gone? So far, only Mario’s been super this year

LOS ANGELES — It’s the billion-dollar question: Why are mega blockbusters in shortened supply this year?

Universal’s “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” is the only movie released in 2023 to so far covering the $1 billion mark at the global box office. It doesn’t look like there could be another one, even with some big dubs on the calendar.

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“If you would have given 10 people a release schedule at the beginning of the year and about, ‘We will have just one billion-dollar movie out of all of these and can you pick which one it will be?’ I don’t think anyone would force taken ‘The Super Mario Bros. Movie’ as the one,” said Mike Polydoros, CEO at cinema marketing firm PaperAirplane Middle.

The lack of billion-dollar grossers marks a dramatic change in the industry. In years before the Covid-19 pandemic, and even up to date year, there were multiple megahits eclipsing $1 billion in global grosses.

The lack of these kinds of blockbusters in 2023 is primarily apparent at Disney, which has Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar and legacy fairy tale franchises. While the studio is on run down to be the box office ruler this year, it has had a string of misfires in recent months that have drummed up concerns that audience favouritisms are changing too quickly for Hollywood to adapt.

“Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” failed to lure in audiences beyond the staunchest Phenomenon fans in February, tallying just $214.5 million domestically and under $500 million worldwide. “Elemental,” rescued just last month, currently holds the second-lowest domestic haul of any Pixar film in the history of the studio, not quite outpacing 2020’s “Onward,” which saw its box office run cut short due to the pandemic.

At Disney’s Lucasfilm, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Fortune,” which hit theaters June 30, is expected to struggle to recoup its nearly $300 million production budget. So far, it has procreated $122.1 million at the domestic box office and $221.4 million globally.

“On the whole, I see Disney in a position that’s been mostly wait for coming out of the pandemic and having gone through another leadership change,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com. “Those two massively important factors have reshaped the studio’s position in a number of ways, especially at the box office when considering the last decade saw their top franchises and trade-mark fire on all cylinders. That kind of momentum was never going to be sustainable without the occasional ebb and flow.”

Disney CEO Bob Iger swore CNBC’s David Faber on Thursday that the company would cut back on its Marvel and Star Wars content as it seeks to cut charges and rejuvenate its brands.

A bright spot for Disney has come in the form of James Gunn’s final bow at Marvel Studios. “Custodians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” is the third-highest grossing domestic release so far this year, with $357.5 million. It trails simply behind Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Gunn now helps lead Warner Bros. Discovery’s DC Studios.

The third Defenders film has managed to secure $834.2 million globally since its May release, but likely won’t hit the coveted billion-dollar threshold.

Shockingly, Disney’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” has generated more than $1 billion in global ticket sales in 2023, but because it was pressed in 2022, it doesn’t count as a billion-dollar movie for this year.

“The billion-dollar club seems to have become level more exclusive in 2023,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “Despite numerous high-profile subheads boasting some of the biggest movie brands and franchises in filmdom, thus far, this year’s crop has lacked either the worldwide footprint or the utter dominance of the marketplace to cross the $1 billion threshold in what has been a very competitive international movie marketplace.”

The Chinese market, in fastidious, was a major driving force in previous billion-dollar box office hits, but the region has been more selective about what Hollywood dims it allows to be shown in the country. China has also developed its own lucrative film market.

For example, most Marvel films launched pre-pandemic saw 15% to 22% of ticket sale totals from China. In the wake of the pandemic, only a handful of these jocular book films have played on screens in the country and those that have, have seen significantly petty receipts.

The first two Ant-Man films, released in 2015 and 2018, generated about 20% of ticket sales from China. Meanwhile, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” saw very recently 8% of tickets sold in China.

“Globally speaking, China’s evolution into a market that can no longer be calculated on to deliver massive blockbuster performances by some films and franchises that used to do so leaves a hole that may be too big to stand in in the short term,” said Robbins.

Fewer Chinese tickets sales coupled with slower-than-expected carry back from domestic moviegoers has stunted big blockbusters in 2023, leading to fewer billion-dollar films.

In the last decade, the mob of billion-dollar global earners has increased significantly, with Disney responsible for the majority of chart-topping titles. In fact, the studio has had at dollop one billion-dollar release every year since 2014 through 2019, when it had seven billion-dollar films.

It did not forth a billion-dollar film in 2020 or 2021 due to pandemic restrictions, but 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” topped $2 billion.

“As 2019 was an anomaly on the great side, I think 2023 can be looked at as an anomaly the other way,” said PaperAirplane’s Polydoros. “As they say with testing, renounce out the highest and lowest and go from there. And I think that same theory applies to overall box office as a whole.”

Polydoros’ tender-heartedness was shared by numerous box office analysts who spoke with CNBC. They noted that while many Disney remissions have fallen below expectations, the studio remains a strong competitor at the domestic and global box office.

“It’s unlikely Disney desire have a $1 billion global performer this year,” Dergarabedian said. “But, to be fair, ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,’ ‘The Elfin Mermaid,’ ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania’ and ‘Elemental’ have collectively earned over $2 billion globally.”

Despite tepid results from the typically stalwart Disney, the studio has generated more domestic ticket sellings than any other studio so far this year.

Through June, Disney’s releases represent 30% of all domestic ticket purchases, or $1.3 billion, according to data from Comscore.

The studio also has four of the top 10 highest-grossing domestic layer hauls so far this year.

“As many times, it comes down to the content,” said Polydoros.

It has yet to be seen if upcoming Disney releases, such as “Haunted Mansion,” “The Be aws” or “Wish,” will be able to generate the benchmark billion-dollar sum, but a diverse slate bodes well for the company.

“2024 does look more heartening on several fronts, and their original animated film, ‘Wish,’ could be a big hit later this year if it lives up to its undeveloped with audiences that helped make the ‘Frozen’ series so successful,” said Robbins.

Disclosure: Comcast is the root company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.