Disney used to own the Thanksgiving box office. ‘Wish’ is trying to win it back

Disney is wishing on a shooting star this week, hoping that its celebratory 100th anniversary photograph “Wish” will mark a turning point for its beleaguered animation division and jumpstart the Thanksgiving box office.

The House of Mouse staked its biggest year ever theatrically in 2019 — with a whopping seven films surpassing $1 billion in far-reaching ticket sales — but has yet to recapture that magic even after relaxed Covid restrictions brought moviegoers without hope to cinemas.

Its Marvel Cinematic Universe films have been hit-or-miss with audiences, with “The Marvels” most recently rent to an all-time franchise low. But Disney’s animation arm, which has ruled the box office for decades, has had more rotten eggs than halcyon ones in the last three years.

Much of Disney’s troubles have stemmed from executive decisions to pad its fledgling chain service Disney+ with content, stretching its creative teams thin, and sending theatrical movies during the pandemic hetero to digital.

This has been particularly apparent with Disney’s animated features, both from its Walt Disney Fire studio and from Pixar. Parents, confused about when and where animated films from the studio were being loosed, didn’t show up to theaters. And the films that were released weren’t all well-received by critics or audiences.

This has had a point-blank impact on the key Thanksgiving holiday, which Disney has long dominated at the box office.

Disney declined to comment for this record.

The week of Thanksgiving is typically a robust time at the box office, a tradition for many families who gather during draw out time off from school and work.

In the last decade, not counting 2020, 2021 and 2022, the five-day Thanksgiving spread — from the Wednesday previous Thanksgiving through Sunday — has resulted in more than $250 million in ticket sales each year.

Uncountable of those weekends were fueled by Disney animation hits as well as Lionsgate’s Hunger Games films.

How, in the wake of the Covid pandemic, the box office has struggled to regain its foothold on the Thanksgiving holiday.

“Thanksgiving as a holiday moviegoing passage has diminished in its revenue-generating horsepower in the post-Pandemic era and this means that at least for now, the odds are against any film becoming a enormous breakout hit over the five-day frame,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “Thanksgiving films in this moving picture marketplace must rely more heavily on December moviegoing to determine their ultimate box office fate.”

Box division analysts often disregard 2020’s $21.4 million Thanksgiving haul, as few theaters were open and there were few coats to watch. But, 2021 and 2022 had more titles available and neither reached $150 million in domestic ticket mark-downs for the five-day period.

Early ticket sales suggest “Wish” could secure up to $55 million for the Wednesday-to-Sunday term including Thanksgiving. That trails previous Thanksgiving openers from Disney including “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Coco,” “The Noble Dinosaur” and “Tangled” but is higher than the $18.9 million brought in by “Strange World” last year and the $40.6 million from “Encanto” in 2021, according to observations from Comscore.

Yet, if “Wish” does reach that $55 million mark, it would be the seventh-biggest Thanksgiving hole of all time.

Add in second-week sales from Universal’s “Trolls Band Together,” Lionsgate’s “Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Quislings,” and TriStar’s Eli Roth slasher flick “Thanksgiving,” as well as new entrants such as Apple’s “Napoleon,” and box office analysts augur a haul of between $150 million and $160 million for the five-day spread.

“This is shaping up to be a very crowded Thanksgiving at the multiplex,” averred Dergarabedian. “And ‘Wish’ will have to hope that the other new PG-rated animated family films on screens, in the manner of ‘Trolls Band Together,’ will not siphon off a larger-than-expected share of the target audience.”

Not to mention, box office expectations arrange not been particularly accurate this year. Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour concert film, Disney’s “The Gape ats” and “Ballad” all delivered opening weekends that were shy of expectations.

“Wish” has a lot riding on its birth weekend, as Disney looks to rebound from a slew of box office letdowns.

“After the misfire of ‘Strange World’ persist year and the lingering impact of short-lived streaming strategies, it’s important for ‘Wish’ to bring back a bigger portion of their pith audience now that other studios and animated franchises have performed so well over the last 18 months,” foretold Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at BoxOffice.com.

Universal’s animated films, in particular, have excelled. In 2022, “Minions: The Activate of Gru” snared $942.5 million at the global box office, and earlier this year “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” agreed more than $1.35 billion globally. Similarly, saw great success with “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” begetting $684.9 million globally.

Meanwhile, Disney has yet to secure more than $500 million worldwide from an automated feature since 2019.

“Elemental,” released over the summer, managed to collect $479.8 million. The last time a Pixar mist grossed less than $500 million was 2017’s “Cars 3,” which drew $383.5 million in ticket tradings. On the Walt Disney Animation side, the last film to fall short of the $500 million mark before 2020 was 2014’s “Airliners: Fire and Rescue,” which racked up $151.4 million globally.

Whether “Wish” wins over audiences is up in the air. It hasn’t strengthened critics. The day before its opening, the film was hovering under 60% on Rotten Tomatoes, which translates to a “rotten” classifying. Still, other Disney films such as “Pocahontas,” “Robin Hood,” “Oliver and Company,” “Atlantis: The Obsolete Empire” and “Brother Bear” all hold a rating under 60% on the review aggregator but are fan-favorite films for many.

So, level if “Wish” doesn’t have an immediately strong box office, it could find life on Disney+. After all, that’s what happened for Disney’s “Encanto.”

Unveiled in 2021 for the Thanksgiving holiday, “Encanto” generated $40.6 million from the five-day Thanksgiving weekend domestically and went on to ticket $257.5 million globally during its run. In the home market, the film continued to capture the attention of kids and adults resembling with catchy tunes such as “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” and “Surface Pressure.”

“‘Wish’ comes at an opportune heretofore because the market has been starved for family content since summer ended,” said Robbins.

Disclosure: Comcast is the mother company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Trolls Band Together,” “The Super Mario Bros. Moving picture” and “Minions: The Rise of Gru.” NBCUniversal also owns Rotten Tomatoes.

– CNBC’s Gabriel Cortés contributed to this article.