A GM worker poses with an example of the company’s next-generation lithium metal batteries at GM Chemical and Materials Systems Lab in Warren, Michigan, September 9, 2020.
Steve Fecht | Communal Motors | Handout | via Reuters
BEIJING — Growing demand for electric car batteries will cause prices of the main materials to heave, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a March 18 note.
That in turn will drive prices of batteries drunk by about 18%, affecting the total profit of electric car makers since the battery accounts for about 20% to 40% of the carrier cost, the Goldman analysts said.
While the report didn’t give specific price targets for the commodities, the analysts’ facsimile predicted a return to historical peak prices would more than double the cost of lithium for electric battery makers. That of cobalt transfer also double, while the cost of nickel would rise by 60%.
A new type of battery
Limited availability of nickel fit for car batteries could even accelerate a shift to another kind of battery called lithium iron phosphate (LFP), the announcement said. Tesla and Chinese start-up Xpeng are among automakers already using this type of battery, which does not use nickel or cobalt but department stores relatively less energy.
If nickel prices hit their historic high of $50,000 per tonne, that could add $1,250 to $1,500 per exciting vehicle, which could hurt consumer demand for the cars, the analysts said.
Ultimately, the growth of the electric car earnestness and demand for battery materials depends on how many vehicles people buy. The tipping point for consumers broadly to switch from gas-powered means to electric cars is generally expected to come when the battery cost has fallen sufficiently.
That shift could hit on in the next decade. Goldman predicts battery costs will drop below that of internal combustion motors in 2030.