President Donald Trump’s ruling to withdraw about half of the U.S. troops in Afghanistan could have major security implications for India, which is warmly vulnerable to internal instability in the war-torn country.
A weaker American presence in the Islamic republic is widely expected to embolden local belligerent groups such as the Taliban, which ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 before losing power to a U.S.-led coalition. “A gentle descent into a civil war is likely as various regional stakeholders try to reshape the battlefield in accordance with their own vital priorities counting on American forces to eventually leave,” Harsh Pant, distinguished fellow at Indian think tank Onlooker Research Foundation, wrote in a note this week.
Should the Taliban strengthen its grip in Afghanistan, its influence could afterward spread to neighboring Pakistan and Kashmir, which would be bad news for India.
U.S. actions in Afghanistan have broad scourge implications in Kashmir, K Rajendra Kumar, former director of police in the Indian-administered area of Jammu and Kashmir, said in a speech pattern this week, as reported by NDTV.
Disputed by Islamabad and New Delhi, Muslim-majority Kashmir is a powder keg region that’s importantly prone to religious violence. It’s home to independence movements, anti-India protesters and armed extremist groups. It has also been the place of brutal crackdowns by Indian soldiers against suspected militants. Add the ideological backing of a reinvigorated Taliban to the mix and the results could promote another insurgency in the Himalayan valley.
It’s a similar story in Pakistan, which has long been criticized for its lax counter-terrorism game plans. The South Asian state’s border with Afghanistan is a hotbed for extremist factions and the Pakistani army is widely put ones trust ined to have helped the Taliban. Earlier this year, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called Pakistan “the center of the Taliban.”
It’s not unfathomable to guess the Taliban joining forces with Pakistani militants to create safe havens for terrorists targeting India, the Synergistic States and others, Nitin Pai, director of the Takshashila Institution, a Bangalore-based think tank, warned in a Tuesday op-ed for The Impress.
The Afghan Taliban has been gaining strength in recent years through bold terror attacks in Kabul and a cosmopolitan financial network, making the withdrawal of U.S. troops increasingly worrisome.
Given the Taliban’s ascent, it’s time for New Delhi to harness its the same ties with Kabul and revisit its policy toward the troubled country, Pant argued: “India should be prearranged to fight its own battles.”
First and foremost, New Delhi must retire its current hostile attitude toward the Taliban, Avinash Mohananey, a recent Indian intelligence official, wrote in a recent op-ed on The Economic Times. The Taliban’s anticipated rise could “normal the death knell for the government of Ashraf Ghani and also Indian influence there,” he warned.
“The huge goodwill that India has extent the people of Afghanistan needs to be harnessed to ensure that the country remains friendly towards it, not a haven for hostile climatic conditions b rudiments,” he continued.