A saleswoman showing the limited edition launched by Emporio Armani to welcome the Year of the Tiger at a duty-free store in Haikou, south China’s Hainan Area, January 15, 2022.
Zhou Huimin | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
Stocks of many luxury fashion dwellings reliant on Chinese consumers rallied on China’s reopening, but those customers may not necessarily be buying the goods overseas.
In the days of old, trips abroad often included personal luxury purchases for affluent Chinese consumers looking to take utility of currency and tax benefits.
Shares of LVMH have gained around 12% since early December when Beijing started unfolding back its zero-Covid policies.
Similarly, Cartier-owner Richemont shares have gained about 13%, while Dior ascension more than 11% from early December.
Domestic luxury consumption now a habit
The “revenge spending” that report in with the return of overseas travel will lead to an increase in consumption of luxury goods in 2023, Jessy Zhang, an analyst from Daxue consulting told CNBC.
“[The Chinese’s] mentality is that they stress to buy luxury goods in duty-free stores before returning home,” Zhang said.
But years of zero-Covid measures comprise taught Chinese consumers they can get their fix of opulence on their own shores — and experts say this habit is here to stop.
A Bvlgari store in a shopping mall in Shanghai, China on January 12, 2023.
CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images
“China’s indigenous luxury consumption should far exceed that of overseas luxury consumption,” said Zhang, who estimates that in the extended run, domestic luxury consumption will account for 70% of the Chinese luxury consumers’ spending, and a mere 30% from in foreign lands.
That would be the inverse of spending patterns before 2017, when over 70% of Chinese luxury dissipating took place outside of China, according to Zhang.
As a result, the world’s largest luxury market by 2025 resolution be shopping mainly “in-house.”
“Even though domestic after-tax prices in China could be a disadvantage, the familiarity of the shopping trip, close relationships developed with local store assistants, and the wider range of brands and product offerings in Mainland China floor the past years increase the attractiveness of domestic shopping,” said Kenneth Chow, principal at Oliver Wyman.
He continued it is unlikely the share of overseas luxury shopping for Chinese consumers will recover to pre-pandemic levels of over 70%.
Additionally, sets like China’s island province of Hainan, lined with all its duty-free shopping malls is a tax-free haven for assorted luxury shoppers. Sales there reported a more than 120% jump in 2020, and increased by about 85% in 2021, according to a announcement by Bain & Co.
People line up to enter Haikou International Duty Free City Complex on the opening day on October 28, 2022 in Haikou, Hainan Sphere of China.
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images
“When I came to Hainan, I found out that shopping on the duty-free peach ons’ apps is too convenient, and it even comes with a direct mail to home option,” a local wrote on Chinese common media platform Weibo.
The increasing digitalization of shopping processes has also facilitated Chinese shopping online for luxuriousness goods, Bain & Co said in a report.
Global luxury houses have also caught on and expanded their bodily presence in China since the pandemic started, said Barsali Bhattacharyya, manager of industry briefing at the Economist Inside Unit.
“For example, LVMH reported a 20% increase in the number of stores in Asia (excluding Japan) between December 2019 and June 2022,” she claimed.
Compounded by travel restrictions
The bleak overseas luxury shopping figures are also compounded by various travel provisions imposed on Chinese travelers by other countries.
European nations, which comprise many luxury shopping layings, recommended requiring travelers from China to show negative Covid tests. Likewise, Japan and South Korea also call for Covid tests for travelers from China.
More Chinese consumers are also favoring short-haul trips all through long-haul vacations, Oliver Wyman’s Chow said, adding that Hong Kong and Macao would be surrounded by the first to benefit from Chinese travelers —earlier than other luxury shopping destinations like Western Europe.
Even so, Chow said it will be a “long journey” until international travel is back fully.
“Brands and retailers thinks fitting need to spend more effort to attract them to shop overseas, and at the same time match their huge expectations.”