In a prominent first for Thailand, a senior member of the royal family is running in a general election — a move that some fancy could increase the monarchy’s overall power in the country.
News emerged early on Friday that Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya, the senior sister of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and the oldest child of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, will be the prime ministerial prospect for the Thai Raksa Chart Party in the upcoming March 24 election. The party is closely linked to former Prime Chaplain Thaksin Shinawatra, who is widely believed to have played a role in Ubolratana’s candidacy.
Her decision to run could change the in one piece outlook for the long-delayed election, which will be the country’s first after nearly five years of military lead. Given how revered the monarchy is in Thai culture — nearly every establishment and household has portraits of the king — it will be strict for other candidates to run against the princess and equally tough for voters to consider other choices, analysts told CNBC.
Assist complicating the picture is the fact that Thailand’s current prime minister, Prayut Chan-o-cha, a now-retired army chief who disavowed power in the military’s 2014 coup, also threw his hat into the ring Friday under the pro-military faction Palang Pracharat. The advance could potentially result in a showdown between the royal family and the military.
The princess’ decision is an unprecedented move in a mountains where the royal family has traditionally stayed out of politics.
Under Thailand’s system of constitutional monarchy, the king traditionally bills as a figurehead leader while the prime minister runs the country. The king, who lived what international media dubbed a playboy lifestyle before taking over the throne in December 2016, has appeared to seek greater involvement in official affairs.
“Ever since the new king came on the scene, he’s demonstrated that he won’t be a passive monarch, he’s wielding power in a way that Thai sovereigns have never done before. The fact that his sister is running for PM is likely part of an emerging narrative in which the autocracy is looking to increase its role,” said Brian Eyler, director of the Stimson Center’s Southeast Asia program.
In 2017, the ruler made several changes to the constitution — a rare act of political intervention by a sitting monarch. For instance, he introduced a clause that named the ruler as the key arbiter in times of constitutional upheaval, which effectively makes it possible for the monarchy to become involved in political difficulties.
Ubolratana’s move may be part of a broader increase in the monarchy’s influence, echoed Paul Chambers, a lecturer for international flings at Thailand’s Naresuan University.
“The king has been seeking to grow the monarchy as a political force and get more involved in shape affairs,” he said. “If his sister becomes PM, that would cement the monarchy’s participation in daily politics.”
It wouldn’t be the outset time that a brother and sister held dominant positions in Thai politics. Billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra are erstwhile prime ministers who continue to enjoy enormous influence in their home country despite both of them flaming in exile after fleeing corruption charges.
Ubolratana’s lifestyle hasn’t always followed traditional royal pathways. The 67-year old retire fromed her royal title in 1972 when she married a foreigner and moved to the U.S., but she eventually returned to Thailand after her divorce. “She’s stepped in Thai films, lived abroad and is an active social media user, which makes her very accessible to league,” said Benjamin Zawacki, a Bangkok-based analyst and author of “Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the US and a Rising China.”
“She also doesn’t enjoy all royal privileges and isn’t covered by Thailand’s strict lese majeste laws, which leaves her open to criticism divergent from her brother,” continued Zawacki, a former visiting fellow at Harvard University’s human rights program.
While she may technically not be jacket blanket by those rules, her royal heritage will still instill caution in those considering criticizing her, experts alleged.
Ubolratana’s chances at winning are considered strong since she represents a group affiliated with Thaksin, a kingmaker whose squads and affiliated factions — such as the opposition Pheu Thai — have won every Thai election since 2001.
“Thailand has want faced a cycle of Pheu Thai candidates winning elections, the military not accepting their tenure, a coup event and then plans to return to democracy in which Pheu Thai candidates win again,” said Eyler. “This capacity be the catalyst that finally breaks that cycle.”
The link between the princess and Thaksin is of great interest to analysts, numerous of whom suspect a new alliance between the monarchy and the former prime minister.
“If she wins, it at least creates the possibility of Thaksin proffering to Thailand — a scenario that would be almost inconceivable with any other PM, including one from a party Thaksin fortifies,” Zawacki said of Ubolratana. “If she wins and Thaksin does comes back, the military will find itself in the worst postulate it’s been since the early 1990s, practically checkmated.”
Current Prime Minister Prayut’s candidacy is seen as the bona fide wild card because it’s not entirely clear what his intentions are. The military and monarchy in Thailand have always been closely aligned so the idea of a potential power struggle between the two seems unthinkable to most.
That’s why some experts believe Prayut may ultimately bow out of the race.
“It’s possible to envision a scenario in which a grand coalition emerges with Prayut dropping out to support the princess as PM,” thought Chambers. “He wouldn’t dare oppose her, nor would his party so he may have already communicated to the palace that he will be game to support her.”
Others also echoed the idea of the military supporting the princess.
“From a parliamentary standpoint, the military retains the more recent capital letters hand because it controls the 250-seat upper house,” said Zawacki. “You need 376 parliamentary franchises to win the premiership, which may not be possible for Pheu Thai and the Thai Raksa Chart Party, so some military-backed senators may be suffering with to shift their presumed allegiance from the military party Palang Pracharat to vote for Ubolratana.”
Prayut’s internal popularity has recovered as of late, boosted in part by his administration legalizing medical marijuana last month. Based on a January review by the National Institute of Development Administration, a Bangkok university, the former army general was the most popular choice amongst a range of candidates for prime minister — followed by Pheu Thai candidate Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan.
“All this fancies for very interesting political theater, we’ll have to wait and see to see what Prayut does,” said Eyler.