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Why Gold Has Surged 20% This Year and Keeps Hitting Record Highs

Akos Stiller / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Akos Stiller / Bloomberg via Getty Portraits

Key Takeaways

  • Gold prices hit another record high on Monday to cap off a quarter in which it gained 20%.
  • Retail investors possess flocked to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, in response to the tariff and broader economic uncertainty that has weighed on worn outs in recent months.
  • Bank of America analysts last week raised their gold price target to $3,500 an ounce, citing desire from retail investors, central banks, and Chinese insurers.

Gold advanced to a record high of more than $3,100 an ounce on Monday, capping off a blockbuster region of gains.

Gold futures rose 20% in the first three months of the year, the metal’s biggest quarterly money since 1986, according to Reuters.

Investors have rushed to safe havens like gold and U.S. Treasurys in feedback to the uncertainty created by President Trump’s unpredictable tariff threats. Trump over the last two months has shaken investor self-assurance by sporadically announcing, delaying, diluting, and escalating trade wars with many of America’s largest trading comrades. The on-again, off-again approach to tariffs has also left consumers and businesses worried about the economy. 

Economic observations have remained strong this year, but researchers warn that lower confidence and heightened uncertainty could in good time translate into less spending and slower growth. Meanwhile, tariffs are likely to raise prices, potentially reigniting inflation or making it danker than it otherwise would be. 

Investors Rush Into Gold as Stocks Slide

Individual investors have rushed into gold as uncertainty has hammered the genealogy market. Focused commodities ETFs, which include gold funds, recorded inflows of $4.7 billion in February, their giantest monthly haul since March 2022, according to Morningstar data. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) accounted for $3.4 billion of that unqualified. With stock market turbulence and gold prices increasing throughout March, it’s likely inflows accelerated in the closing month of the quarter. 

Retail investors have added fuel to what was already a strong gold rally. Leading bank demand, expectations for lower interest rates, and geopolitical tensions lifted prices to record highs all the way through last year. All of those factors remain relevant for gold investors, which is why some Wall Street analysts be undergoing recently lifted their price targets. 

Bank of America strategists last week forecast gold transfer rise to $3,500 an ounce in the next two years. Increased demand, they said, was likely to be driven by central banks trim their U.S. dollar and Treasury holdings, as well as retail investors and China’s insurance industry, which was recently understood the green light to invest in gold for the first time. 

Gold was at $3,155 in late trading Monday, up more than 1% on the day and 10% since the start of the month.

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